NEW DELHI, May 17 (UPI) -- The outcome of the Tokyo Donors' Conference will determine New Delhi's possible contribution to Sri Lankan affairs, Indian political analysts said Tuesday.
"India should wait and see if the co-chairs can persuade the (Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam) to return to the negotiating table. If they succeed, we would see how we can contribute more actively to the peace process," said M.R. Narayan Swami, a Sri Lanka political affairs expert.
Narayan Swami said India is well aware that Sri Lanka is on the brink of war.
"Precisely for that reason New Delhi has called for an early resumption of dialogue between the government and the Tamil rebels," he said.
Despite consistently pursuing a policy of non-interference into Sri Lanka's ethnic conflict, India has been keeping a close watch on developments in the island country, particularly after a recent increase in violence after rebels walked out of the second round of peace talks in Geneva.
Colombo has of late urged the Indian government to play a more active role than condemning the attacks that have now become frequent following the LTTE's return to armed struggle.
During his recent India visit, Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera sought New Delhi's active support in restoring stability in the war-torn country.
Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapakse appealed to India to participate in the Donors' Conference to be held in Tokyo at the end of May. India refused, saying it would not like to interfere in the ethnic conflict Colombo has been facing for more than two decades.
"India is unlikely to join the co-chairs of the Tokyo Donors' Conference and become an active participant in the Sri Lankan peace process. Our policy in regard to the Sri Lankan peace process remained the same," said Navtej Sarna, Indian foreign office spokesman.
India's non-interference policy is linked with its domestic politics, because Indian Tamils in southern Tamil Nadu are concerned for the Sri Lankan Tamils. In addition, the support of four major Tamil parties is crucial to the stability of the coalition government led by the United Progressive Alliance.
Tamils in India and Sri Lanka would like India to support the Tamil cause for federalism and autonomy, if not outright secession. India has been non-committal in this regard since the assassination of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi by an LTTE suicide bomber at an election rally 1991.
Tamils in northern and eastern Sri Lanka are appreciative of India's position, and say neutrality itself would be of help. Their argument is that by remaining neutral, India would not arm the Sri Lankan governmental forces which regularly clash with the Tamils.
Even as India is unwilling to intervene in Sri Lankan affairs, the Sri Lankan media seems optimistic about possibility of New Delhi's role in the conflict.
"It need hardly be said that India has right along followed a consistent policy in regard to our conflict. (India) has... supported an equitable, peaceful solution to this problem, which addressed the legitimate aspirations of all our communities," a Daily News editorial read.
The Sri Lankan air force launched air strikes at LTTE bases in northern Trincomalee after the armed rebels carried out a series of attacks on the Sri Lankan navy in which several soldiers were killed. The international community condemned the soldiers' killing by rebels, and asked the Tigers to return to the peace talks.
Tamil rebels described the recent clashes with the army as a low intensity war which they said would only stop when the government's troops return to barracks.
President Rajapakse denies that his government has resumed military action against the rebels, leading the country to war. He renewed his call for talks to end the conflict, and urged the Tigers not to further internationalize the issue.
"We should have treated it as a domestic issue and resolved it ourselves. As for me, I do not want to internationalize it any further," Rajapakse said, saying that negotiations with the government were the way to solve the conflict.
The rebels have not yet responded to Rajapakse's appeal, and have continued their attacks on the Sri Lankan navy and armed forces. The four co-chairs of the peace process -- Norway, Japan, the United States and the European Union -- have also asked the rebels to stop violence and join the talks.
The Tokyo conference of co-chairs will focus on strategies to persuade the rebels to return to peace talks, and may ask the Rajapakse government to announce some measures that could help the co-chairs to prevail upon the rebels.
Earlier, when the ethnic conflict was at its peak, India pressed the Sri Lankan government to bring about a Sinhala consensus on a political solution.
This suggestion came up again when Rajapakse visited India after becoming president and again when Samaraweera toured last month. Both Sri Lankan leaders have said they are trying to find a consensus through all-party meetings.
