WASHINGTON, May 15 (UPI) -- In analyzing behavioral changes in terrorist activities over the past 50 years, specifically terrorism relating to the Mideast conflict, a clear pattern seems to emerge: each new war gave rise to a new wave of terror. And each new wave outdid the preceding one in levels of violence.
The war in Iraq is far from over and already there are persistent rumors around Washington of an attack by either Israel or the United States on Iran's nuclear facilities. It really doesn't matter who strikes Iran -- the United States or Israel -- either one will unleash another wave of terror against the West. And in keeping with the established trend, this fourth wave of terror will be even deadlier.
While terrorist acts by Arabs against Jews and by Jews against Arabs, or by Arabs and Jews against the British in Palestine dates back to the early days of Jewish settlement in modern-day Palestine, the first wave of organized terrorism saw the day in the aftermath of the June 1967 Arab-Israeli War.
The Six-Day War saw the defeat of Egypt, Syria and Jordan by Israel, which more than doubled its size by capturing the Sinai Peninsula and the Gaza Strip from Egypt and the Golan plateau from Syria. Israeli forces then took the West Bank from Jordan, including the old city of Jerusalem. For the Arabs it was a humiliating defeat that served as a wake-up call. In view of the military imbalance, a head-on confrontation with the Jewish state was unrealistic. The Palestinians therefore turned to guerrilla warfare and the first wave of terrorism saw the day.
The first attacks, carried out by Palestinians and some Arab nationalists who had joined the resistance, targeted mostly Israel and Jewish groups. That first wave remained localized and had little impact in the United States despite minor economic setbacks when a handful of American firms found themselves on the Arab boycott list for doing business with Israel. Products such as Coca-Cola, Ford Motors and Elizabeth Arden beauty products were banned in the Arab world.
That first wave led Israel to retaliate against Jordan, as the commandos operated from there. Palestinian guerrillas would sneak across the Jordanian-Israeli border, carry out raids, and then sneak back into Jordan.
By 1970, tension between the Palestinians and the Jordanians led to the Black September bloody confrontation. The outcome was a rise in terrorism -- airline hijackings and the raid on the Munich Olympics. The PLO, Yasser Arafat and the leaders of other resistance groups where evicted. They found their way to Lebanon, where they regrouped.
Still, no political solution to the Palestinian problem was sought.
Then came the 1973 October War, or the Yom Kippur War, when on Oct. 6, Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on Israel. The October War signaled a major turning point in the Middle East conflict, as both sides claimed victory. The Arabs realized that Israel could be attacked but not defeated, and Israel realized that it could.
The October War gave rise to the second, deadlier, wave of terrorism. Attacks by Palestinian guerrillas -- and sometimes their foreign allies -- spilled over into Europe. Thanks to support of European revolutionary groups, quite active in Europe at the time, the Palestinians found natural allies.
Palestinian groups, particularly the Popular Front headed by Dr. George Habbash, joined up with Japan's Red Army Faction, Italy's Red Brigades, the Baader-Mienhoff Gang in Germany, Corsican separatist groups, Basques, Iranians fighting the shah, the Irish Republican Army, and others who offered a vast network for the Palestinians to tap into. It gave Palestinians on their way to carry out attacks safe houses across Europe and access to a treasure trove of false documents. In return, the Palestinians offered the Euro-revolutionaries training and safe havens in a number of Arab countries.
This second wave included attacks on airlines and political assassinations. While Americans became more frequent targets, still, the American homeland felt safe and isolated from much of the turmoil that befell Europe. As President Bush said shortly after the Sept. 11 attacks, "We felt protected by the vast oceans." Of course the oceans proved to be no deterrent to terrorism.
Then came the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan -- the event that brought about the most radical changes since the end of World War II, causing the fall of the Soviet empire and the end of communism. It also set the stage for the emergence of politicized Islam -- or Islamism. The Soviets hoped to eventually inch further south, in time reaching a warm water port on the Gulf -- a great need for the Soviet fleet to alleviate pressures imposed by harsh winters on the Soviet Baltic Fleet.
That's when it all started to turn sour. The United States, in its attempt to stem the Soviet advance, allied itself with people like Osama bin Laden. But at the end of the conflict the United States, only too happy to pull out, did so quickly, without looking for a settlement of the Afghan issue.
The third wave of terror began with the rise of Islamism, a totally new form of terror and a far more potent one given that religious fervor was introduced alongside political extremism to produce the sort of terrorism that gave the world Sept. 11, the Madrid bombings, the London bombings and other murderous attacks.
We now come to Iran.
An attack on Iran will unleash a fourth wave of terror. If history serves as a guide, this fourth wave should be far worse. It will be fought with more terrifying weapons, including biological, chemical and possibly nuclear bombs.
When American troops entered the Afghani capital they were greeted as liberators. The Bush administration expected the same in Baghdad, but instead of a Kabul moment, it turned out to be a Beirut nightmare.
Iran would be even worse.
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