BURY ST. EDMUNDS, England, May 7 (UPI) -- The rivalry between Mohammad Ali and Joe Frazier is probably the greatest rivalry in boxing history. Between 1971 and 1975 they fought three times. George Foreman and Ken Norton had key supporting roles. It was boxing at its very best.
I was a teenager then. I would wake up at 3AM to watch the matches from Europe where my father was stationed. I was fascinated by Ali's grace. Frazier showed sheer willpower. I was impressed with Norton's ring strategy. Foreman, an Olympic champion, was literally a giant in the ring.
It was during Ali and Frazier's last bout in 1975 - the "Thrilla from Manila" - that the referee called a standing 8 count. It had been a brutal fight. Both men had been severely battered. It was the 14th round. Frazier needed a knockout. The referee -- sensing Frazier was in trouble and on the verge of being seriously injured --stopped the fight. He counted to 8 to determine if Frazier was able to continue. Frazier was saved by the bell. But he did not return for the 15th round.
Politics, like boxing, is often more about stamina, than skill.
Tony Charles Lynton Blair should have left the political stage in the 13th round, some time ago. He knows he is down by points. He thinks a Cabinet shake-up two days after being pummeled in local elections is a successful counterpunch.
It is not.
On May 4th, just two days shy of his 53rd Birthday, Tony Blair's Labour Party was mauled in elections -- losing over 300 local council seats. The rival Conservative Party garnered nearly 40 percent of the vote, their best result since 1992. Even the Liberal Democrats, faltering in public opinion, received 27 percent of the vote, pushing Labour into 3rd place.
"We are on our way back" proclaimed the Conservative Party Leader David Cameron, after only five months on the job. At 39, he is the third youngest Tory leader in history. A distant relative of the queen, he is nonetheless of relatively humble origins. "We must not be complacent," he continued, "this is a mandate for us to go further and faster." The last time the Conservative Party received a similar mandate was 13 years ago under then Prime Minister John Major -- a truly self-made man I like and know.
David William Duncan Cameron studied both at Eton and Oxford. His conservative lineage, including three prominent members of Parliament from the late 19th and early 20th century, comes from his mother's side of the family. He displays an easy manner in front of the cameras, which allows him to seem less upper crust. He enjoys rock music and mountain biking. He likes to be seen as a man of the people and launched his leadership campaign from a community radio station.
David Cameron sees his role as bringing the Conservatives back to the center. He is determined to rid-the-party of its alarmist messages on immigration and crime. He seeks soothing words on the environment. He knows the Euro skeptic wing of the party has dominated over the past 10 years.
Despite the Conservative success in the elections -- their ability to take seats in London and southern England -- David Cameron knows the party did not gain enough seats in the population-rich North. He also knows that his party's candidates are still mostly white, male and middle-aged. He is certainly aware that the Tories did well in local elections in 2004 before crashing to defeat in national elections only a year later.
Gordon Brown, the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Blair's heir, can only cringe at Cameron's success; he has the most to lose. He knows Prime Minister Blair's playbook has gone awry -- and is disastrously wrong.
Brown knows that demoting Foreign Secretary Jack Straw to Leader of the House of Commons -- a fate that befell his predecessor the recently deceased Robin Cooke -- is an utter mistake. Removing Charles Clarke -- the intelligent tough-tongued Home Secretary -- one of Brown's greatest critics -- might just bring out a Pit Bull seeking revenge and delivering carnage. Worse yet, Brown knows that promoting John Reid to Home Secretary and Alan Johnson to Education elevates his antagonists to striking distance for a potentially contentious leadership battle.
And Tony Blair?
He is stumbling across the ring. He thinks he can land an upper cut. He thinks his footwork is still that of a champion. He thinks he is mustering strength for the right combination.
But everyone else knows better. His trainers and supporters see it. Even the crowds know it. He is a champion beyond his prime -- a rather pathetic shadow of his former self.
His last tortuous moves are in fact the desperate moves of a man seeking a knockout blow -- a blow the prime minister will not be delivering.
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(UPI Columnist Marc S. Ellenbogen is chairman of the Global Panel Foundation and president of the Prague Society for International Cooperation. A Senior Associate at Syracuse's Maxwell School, he is formerly a visiting fellow at Oxford's Magdalen College. He is based in Berlin and Prague. He may be reached at [email protected])
