TEL AVIV, Israel, May 2 (UPI) -- In his likely dash from being sworn into office in Jerusalem to being swarmed by admirers in Washington, Israeli Prime Minister-designate Ehud Olmert should find a quiet moment to reflect on the pressing question of Israel's Hamas (non-)policy. Adult policy discussions are understandably avoided during election campaigns, but events on the ground have rudely refused to stand still. Early signs of a Hamas capacity for moderation could already be morphing into a "we have nothing to lose" recidivism in the face of global stonewalling.
Israel seems to be stumbling, and I would guess by default, into a policy of forced regime change in the Palestinian Authority. Rather than chalking up another victory for Israeli diplomatic acumen, success in this regard might ironically pose the greatest threat to Olmert's own plan for territorial downsizing. Collapsing Palestinian governing institutions will almost certainly invite chaos. Four years dealing with its consequences is four years lost to the project of drawing Israel's borders. Once in Washington, Olmert might like to ask his hosts about the cakewalk known as "regime change in the Arab world."
The unique predicament of the Palestinian Authority denies Israel and the Quartet the luxury of a benign neglect, wait-and-see approach to the Hamas government. Virtually all aspects of Palestinian economic life, trade, movement of persons and goods, and 40 percent of government income (via the customs duties Israel collects) are at the whim of Israeli policy. Hamas' ideology, popularity and military aggression are unlikely to evaporate if they are forced from office by an Israeli-U.S.-led squeeze. The prospect of premeditated regime collapse may even be encouraging violence from Islamic Jihad and elements of Fatah. Certainly Fatah is unlikely to undertake its own much needed internal reform and regeneration process if it is expecting to be imminently re-anointed in an internationally blessed coup. British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw and Italian Prime Minister-elect Romano Prodi have both hinted that a policy rethink is needed.
Perhaps Hamas is really not up to the task of governing or cannot square its oppositionist rhetoric with its establishment responsibilities. Hamas may split or the Palestinian public may again elect to kick the rascals out. But to have credibility and signify a turning point, this outcome would need to happen on Palestinian terms -- based on Hamas' performance in government. Israel faces a stark choice: Isolate and collapse the Hamas-led PA, or allow Hamas to govern and conditionally engage. It would surely be unwise and damaging to the Olmertian project of border drawing to opt for the former.
Israel and the Quartet should not be the ones to foreclose any prospect for Hamas moderation. Should it choose to, Hamas could bestow incomparable legitimacy on any understanding reached with Israel. Thus far, the Hamas leadership's messages are mixed. Hamas has yet to definitively position itself on the Islamist governance spectrum, the two outer extremes of which could be defined as the Taliban in Afghanistan and the Justice and Development Party government in Turkey. Hamas does, though, belong in the camp of nationalist political Islamic movements that seek country-specific democratic reform, as opposed to post-nationalist political Islamic movements like al-Qaida, which seek to bring the violent downfall of the global state and market-based system. This latter phenomenon, rather than hand-picked old friends from Fatah, will likely fill the void should a failed non-state emerge on Israel's doorstep.
Those preparing Prime Minister Olmert's papers for the Washington visit would do well to update him on an interesting development taking place in the debate on Iran. Several influential American figures, including Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Richard Lugar and former senior officials Richard Armitage and Richard Haass have recently come out in favor of a U.S. diplomatic initiative on Iran -- including bilateral talks. Senator Lugar suggested the U.S. would "make more headway diplomatically... in direct talks."
Israel, too, should embrace diplomatic creativity and engagement. A diplomatic package in Olmert's briefcase to Washington might include the following elements: Israel uses the opportunities afforded by cohabitation in the Palestinian government and negotiates with Abu Mazen. Israel adopts an approach of cautiously testing Hamas in government while seeking to avoid collapsing Palestinian institutions or governance capacity. America, Europe, the Quartet and Arab states employ variable geometry in their Palestinian relations, strategically engaging to maximize the prospects of a stable, secure and peaceful way forward with the PLO and the Palestinian Authority.
Abu Mazen receives Hamas backing to negotiate a political settlement with Israel, including a commitment to, at a minimum, respect the results of a referendum that would be held on any deal reached. Financial mechanisms established, including for payment of taxes collected by Israel, allow the PA to function while guaranteeing that no money could be used for conducting or planning acts of violence or for incitement. Financing is conditioned on milestones that are principally security-driven, including unlimited extension of the cease-fire and active prevention of attacks from PA-controlled territories by any group, such as that carried out in Tel Aviv. Israel desists from military escalation. Third parties mediate with the Hamas cabinet, and predicated on security delivery, diplomatic channels are extended, including ultimately to Israel. If mutual recognition becomes a mutual interest, then the language will be found.
With a U.S. administration seemingly recalibrating its second term priorities, Prime Minister Olmert might outline a worthy challenge to the president, and borrowing a metaphor from Bush's favored world of baseball -- encourage him to swing for the fences in achieving lasting peace in the Holy Land.
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(Daniel Levy was an advisor in the Prime Minister's Office, a member of the official Israeli negotiating team at the Oslo B and Taba talks and the lead Israeli drafter of the Geneva Initiative. This article is distributed by the Common Ground News Service.)
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(Distributed by the Common Ground News Service.)
