WASHINGTON, April 28 (UPI) -- Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, recently appeared in a videotape showing his face for the first time. In his previous videotapes, his face was always covered. Why has he made this change?
He obviously did it to get attention -- and he succeeded. Indeed, his revealing his face has gotten more attention for this videotaped message than it probably would have gotten otherwise. Clearly, though, he could have done this before. So why now?
We cannot know for sure, but for some time there have been important differences between Zarqawi on the one hand and the top al-Qaida leadership on the other. Just last year, the U.S. government published a letter from Osama bin Laden's deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, to Zarqawi which indicated some of these. (Among other things, Zawahiri warned Zarqawi against beheadings and other brutal acts which repulsed ordinary Muslims, infighting among Sunni jihadis, and attacks against Shiites.) It appears that these differences have continued.
In his latest videotape, Zarqawi stated that Islamic fighters have "the upper hand on the battlefield" and that "America will go out of Iraq, humiliated, defeated." If Zarqawi actually believes these statements -- i.e., they are more than just boastful propaganda -- there are important implications. For if the U.S. does leave Iraq, the anti-American forces that have been fighting them are not going to stop fighting and work together, but will engage in a fierce struggle for control over the country.
A Sunni-Shiite conflict has already emerged, and is likely to continue. There will also, however, be struggles for dominance within both the ranks of the Sunnis and the Shiites. If he really believes that the Americans will soon leave Iraq, Zarqawi undoubtedly wants to position himself to win the struggle for dominance first over Iraqi Sunnis and then over all of Iraq.
Revealing his face on videotape may well be a part of this effort. Up to now, bin Laden's and Zawahiri's images have been ubiquitous in the media while Zarqawi has remained invisible. This suggested that bin Laden and Zawahiri were far more important than Zarqawi. The recent broadcast of his image throughout the world, though, emphasizes Zarqawi's importance. Maybe he wants to show that he is just as important as bin Laden and Zawahiri. Or maybe he wants to show that he is now even more important than them. Either way, he seems to be making a concerted effort to build up his own following.
If indeed all this reflects a growing power struggle between Zarqawi on the one hand and bin Laden and Zawahiri on the other, can the U.S. and its allies somehow take advantage of this? As delicious as this prospect is, it is highly doubtful that it could be done now. For both sides to this conflict (if that is what it is) are virulently anti-American. No matter how much they might dislike each other, it is highly doubtful that either would seriously consider seeking American assistance against the other any time soon.
Nor should this be surprising. During the Cold War, the dispute between the Soviet and the Chinese Communists had been going on for well over a decade before each responded to the Nixon Administration's détente overtures. What this implies is that the dispute between Zarqawi and bin Laden/Zawahiri will have to intensify and continue for a long time before the U.S. can hope to take advantage of it.
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(Mark N. Katz is a professor of government and politics at George Mason University.)
