JERUSALEM, April 23 (UPI) -- Interim Prime Minister Ehud Olmert seems to be well on his way to forming a broad-based government.
As it stands now, his Kadima Party may head a coalition comprising 84 of the 120 Knesset members and the Labor Party will be its most important partner.
Olmert gave Labor's leader Amir Peretz the highly coveted position of defense minister. His "eagerness to satisfy Labor, even at unreasonable prices, signifies not only the desire for a stable government but also the political direction (he intends to follow)," noted Yediot Aharonot's political correspondent Sima Kadmon. "Olmert is determined to implement his Convergence Plan in the shortest time (possible) and he considers the Labor Party his main partner in implementing it,"
In a series of recent interviews Olmert talked of allowing some time for negotiations with Palestinians to see whether an agreement is possible. However, he might just be going through the motions.
In a recent interview with the Washington Post, Olmert talked of negotiations with "the official representatives of the Palestinian Authority. (Not President Mahmoud Abbas, also known as) Abu Mazen (who) has deprived himself of all the practical authorities of government. It will have to be those in government, on the condition that they meet the requirements of the roadmap and the Quartet."
The Quartet, comprising the United States, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations, is demanding the new Palestinian government "commit to the principles of nonviolence, recognition of Israel, and acceptance of previous agreements and obligations, including the Roadmap (for peace)."
Hamas, which controls that government, refuses to do so.
Israeli Brig. Gen. Yossi Ben Ari, who served in the military intelligence and is now Co-Director of the Strategic Affairs Unit at the Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information, said he believed Olmert was just paying lip service to the phase of "Israeli-Palestinian negotiations."
"Let's be realistic. Someone who does not consider Abu Mazen a partner, (and considers) the Palestinian government a terrorist entity does not really intend to (conduct) ... diplomatic negotiations," he said in a paper presented in Jerusalem.
Olmert wants to shorten the phase of waiting for such negotiations "because the American clock is ticking. It seems he wants to take advantage of the year and a half left (for U.S. President George W. Bush) if not to begin the convergence plan then at least to give it its final shape, win international support so that he could start implementing that plan immediately" upon the emergence of the new U.S. Administration.
Ben Ari predicted that soon after the new Israeli government takes over, which could happen as soon as next week, it would launch an intensive campaign to prevent any cracks in the international community's stand towards Hamas.
Olmert will then prepare a detailed Convergence Plan, outline the borders he envisages for Israel and launch a dialogue with the Israeli public -- including the West Bank settlers -- to win support for it, Ben Ari wrote.
That plan should entail the removal of many settlements to blocs of settlements in the West Bank.
Ben Ari predicted Olmert would offer generous financial compensation to the settlers slated for evacuation and create new jobs to persuade them to move voluntarily. In one way his job in the West Bank will be easier than it had been last year in evacuating the Gaza Strip settlements because many West Bank settlers already work in Israel proper.
Ben Ari predicted the government will invest large sums also in "correction or reconstruction" of the security barrier the government has been building in and around the West Bank so that it would conform with the borders he envisages. He will move to evict illegal settler outposts in the West Bank.
February clashes in which 200 settlers, supporters and security men were injured during an attempt to evacuate squatters from nine houses illegally built on privately-owned Arab land in Amona near Ramallah, have been etched in Israeli consciousness. It is a warning of what may happen in future evacuations.
Nevertheless, Ben Ari predicted that "Olmert will not hesitate to get into it because he is committed to the U.S. Administration."
He expected a "national effort" to complete resettling the people evacuated last year from the Gaza Strip settlements because the government's attitude towards those 8,000 people will be seen as "a declaration of intent" for the tens of thousands of settlers Olmert intends to relocate in the West Bank.
There are several obstacles, Ben Ari continued.
It is not clear when the Labor Party would agree to give up on attempts to negotiate with the Palestinian leadership and support unilateral moves.
The orthodox Sepharadi Shas Party, that is likely to join Olmert's government, would do its best to stall or even cancel implementation of the Convergence Plan. If the nationalist Israel Beitenu (Israel is Our Home) joins the coalition, it might cooperate with Shas.
A sudden emergence of a potential negotiating partner could lead the international community to pressure Israel to return to the negotiating table. Labor's leader, and current Defense Minister-designate, Amir Peretz would demand that, "and if he forgets Olmert's wife will remind him," according to Ben Ari. As a political dove, Aliza Olmert did not vote for her husband who at the time belonged to the hawkish Likud Party.
A collapse of the Hamas government, and new Palestinian elections might also require a revision of Israeli thinking, Ben Ari continued.
Violence, too, might disrupt the plan.
"Most settlers would leave quietly but the hard core would give Olmert a tough time." Clashes, similar to those at Amona, "might inflame reactions to Olmert's plan," he said.
Hamas wants quiet, and that should make things easier for Olmert.
However, if Hamas fails to enforce its authority and Fatah and Islamic Jihad chaos will continue, "Israel might be drawn into a large scale military activity" in Gaza and "this might change the entire picture," said Ben Ari.
