NEW DELHI, April 21 (UPI) -- India's continued faith in a two-pillar approach to Nepal seems to be failing as protesters in the Himalayan kingdom insist a return to democracy is the only way out of the current political crisis, Indian political analysts said Friday.
"India should rethink its two-pillar theory on Nepal, as it is not accepted to either the seven-party alliance or the Maoist rebels who insist on a republican democracy," said senior political analyst A.B. Mahapatra.
Mahapatra said the 1990 constitutional order, under which multi-party parliamentary governance and constitutional monarchy were paired together, was now obsolete as Nepalese political parties and rebels have jointly rejected the old order.
Contrary to the general perception in Nepal, India has been favoring a two-pillar system, which it sees as the only way out of the present impasse.
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Wednesday sent Dr. Karan Singh, a prominent lawmaker of the ruling Congress party and a close relative of the Nepal's embattled King Gyanendra, as a special envoy for talks. Protests have raged on in the capital Kathmandu for more than three weeks, with at least three demonstrators killed Thursday when police opened fire on crowds.
Dr. Singh held discussions with the king at his palace and with the leaders of the opposition parties who have been spearheading an anti-monarch campaign demanding the immediate restoration of democracy. Gyanendra dismissed Nepal's government and claimed absolute rule last February.
Indian foreign secretary Shyam Saran, an old hand in Napelese affairs, joined Singh in Kathmandu where he met the chief of the Royal Napelese Army. Singh also conveyed a strong message from Prime Minister Singh to the monarch asking him to open a political dialogue with the parties.
During the course of his talks with India's special envoy, King Gyanendra hinted that he might appeal to the seven-parties alliance to form a government with full executive authority, with or without parliament being restored.
Analysts, however, said the king would not take any step towards the restoration of multi-party democracy until his role in the new arrangement is determined.
Both Maoists and opposition parties have insisted on scrapping the 1990 constitution to demolish the monarchy completely.
India's reckoning is that the transfer of power to the seven-parties alliance is the only option before the king to restore the twin-pillar system of democratic governance, multi-party parliamentary democracy and constitutional monarchy.
The risk involved is that the mere restoration of the 1990 constitution's political order is unacceptable to agitating rebels and opposition parties, who have allied against the monarchy. Their contention is that if the constitutional monarchy is allowed to stay further, there is no guarantee that the king would not again dismiss any popular government to seize absolute power.
The opposition furthermore sees the present turmoil and growing popular anti-monarch sentiment as the right moment to get rid of the monarchy once and for all.
Special envoy Singh conveyed this message to King Gyanendra and urged him to act swiftly before the situation spirals out of control.
He also attempted to prevail upon the opposition parties to allow the 1990 constitution order to continue, but failed to gain any assurances.
Singh received a jolt when Maoists and the seven-parties alliance staged a demonstration right outside the palace during his meeting with the monarch. A republican system of government was one of 36 points demands made in the Maoist charter that was accepted by the opposition bloc.
"At best, if he acts immediately King Gyanendra can settle for a new constitutional order in which the institution of monarchy will be a ceremonial monarchy like in the British parliamentary system," said Mahapatra, adding that Maoist rebels may accept this arrangement if the king acted without stalling.
Analysts say India is extremely apprehensive about the intentions of the Maoist rebels, with New Delhi unwilling to extend any trust their way despite assurances that violence will end once democracy is re-established in Nepal.
"The Maoists on their part have publicly assured that they shall renounce the gun and join the political process if republican democracy is established in Nepal," said Harkishan Singh Surjeet, former general secretary of the Communist Party of India.
