WASHINGTON, April 7 (UPI) -- "United States policy in Iraq is widening sectarian divisions to the point of effectively handing the country to Iran," commented Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal while on an official visit to Washington on September 20, 2005. "We fought a war together to keep Iran out of Iraq, now we are handing the whole country over to Iran without reason... Iraq is disintegrating."
A new report by Nawaf Obaid, an adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, reveals some chilling realities about the U.S. intervention in Iraq and explores a Saudi view of the ramifications of the war.
The study draws on the views of certain officials in Iraq and in neighboring governments which have a stake in a unified and stable Iraq. The report was complied through dozens of interviews with current military and intelligence officials throughout the region, and numerous conversations with Iranian officials. For political and security reasons, the names of these officials and officers were withheld from the report.
Obaid, the Saudi author of the report, stresses that "it is also important to note that the purpose of this report is not to criticize U.S. policy in Iraq." Rather, the intent is to provide value to the Saudi government as an independent assessment of the current situation in Iraq "and the possibility of large-scale civil war." The report is outlined in a 50-page document titled "Meeting the Challenge of a Fragmented Iraq: A Saudi Perspective."
The potential of a civil war breaking out is growing daily, warns the report, "and Saudi Arabia has an enormous stake in preparing for such a calamity." The U.S. invasion of Iraq, three years ago last March, "opened a Pandora's Box of deep-rooted sectarian tensions as well as rival communal interests." The invasion meant to oust Saddam Hussein and find his alleged weapons of mass destruction, "ignited a tinderbox of violence brought on by an insurgency that is proving difficult to contain and even harder to eradicate," writes Obaid.
Of the plethora of challenges facing Iraq today, security is the most urgent. As the report states, Iraq "has seen no respite from violence, which has targeted U.S. and Iraqi forces and terrorized civilians with almost daily bombings, drive-by shootings, kidnappings and assassinations. A civil war may well be inevitable. Such a development would have the gravest implications for the entire region, especially Saudi Arabia, which shares its longest international border with Iraq."
One of the great fears of Saudi rulers is preserving the integrity of Iraq, and particularly "safeguarding the rights of Sunnis in a country dominated by Shiites," the report said. The importance that Iran, ruled by a Shiite theocracy, does not dominate Iraq, and in the process the Sunni minority, is a matter of immense concern to Saudi Arabia.
The report elucidates that despite the recent Iraqi elections which it hails as "a milestone in the country's move towards democracy," the officials interviewed by the author said "they have done little to foster a sense of unity among Kurds, Sunnis, and Shiites." Instead, the elections have accentuated the communal differences with the vast majority of Iraqis voting along communal lines. Four months after election day, Iraqi leaders are still unable to resolve the stalemate.
One of the issues concerns the Kurds, who since the previous Gulf war in 1990-91 have "enjoyed the privileges of living in a semi-autonomous state." Their area, which came under the protection of the U.S. military, prospered while the rest of Iraq foundered. The Kurds are therefore "unlikely to be willing partners in a government that, when fully functional, might offer them considerably less."
Iran's interference in Iraqi affairs "further complicates the situation," as Tehran continues to try and influence Iraq's political process, as for example by giving support to the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, or SCIRI, says Obaid. Tehran's influence is "significant," with the majority of Iraq's Shiite political and religious parties being heavily influenced by Iran.
"Iranian levers of influence include a broad network of informants, military and logistical support of armed groups, and social welfare campaigns," writes Obaid.
The Sunnis, who have been the dominant power in Iraq despite being a minority, are having a hard time coming to grips with the new political reality in the country. And last, but by no means least, the insurgency, the foreign fighters and the jihadists "continue to remain a seriously destabilizing force."
With the security situation in Iraq deteriorating by the day and civil war rapidly becoming a reality, the CSIS report makes the following recommendations:
-- Develop a Comprehensive Strategy for a Worst-Case Scenario
-- Better Communicate the Situation to the U.S.
-- Counter Meddling by Iran
-- Extend a State Invitation to Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani
-- Forgive Most of Iraq's Debt
-- Appoint an Ambassador to Iraq and Arrange State Visit
-- Create Permanent Border Security Committee
-- Provide Guidance for the Elimination of Militants
Civil war in Iraq would have "catastrophic consequences for the region, and present grave challenges to Saudi national security.
"It is vital for the Saudi leadership to prepare a comprehensive and cohesive national strategy to confront all the potential ramifications of civil war in Iraq," Obaid stresses. "This strategy must embrace economic, political, and religious factors, and present concrete plans for a response to each of the challenges a disintegrated Iraq would pose to the kingdom's security." He recommends embracing "both overt and covert components," for maximum effectiveness.
"U.S. missteps began in Iraq with disbanding of the Iraqi army, continued with its failure to establish lines of communication with tribal leaders, and ended with its gross miscalculations regarding the nature and resiliency of the insurgency."
Finally, the report states that "these failures -- along with mounting casualties -- have led to increased domestic pressure for the U.S. to end its mission." It warns that such a move "would precipitate a civil war and an immediate disintegration of the state."
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