WASHINGTON, March 29 (UPI) -- If Taiwan continues on a course of militarization, antagonism and "troublemaking," the tiny East Asian country may find itself isolated and economically stunted, the opposition Kuomintang chairman warned recently.
Ma Ying-jeou, who also serves as mayor of Taiwan's capital, Taipei, voiced concerns that Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian and his Democratic Progressive Party are engaging in a political high-wire act by antagonizing mainland China.
Ma outlined the KMT's conciliatory approach to resolving cross-strait tensions, in contrast with the Taiwan government's style of late which he said depended too much upon "confrontation."
Since the establishment of the People's Republic of China in 1949, nationalist Chinese have taken refuge in Taiwan, enjoying the support of the United States until 1979, when the Carter administration formally recognized the PRC as the single China.
Still, Washington maintains strategically important relations with Taiwan, regarding it as an outpost of both democracy and capitalism in the region.
While the first 30 years of cross-strait relations represented one of the pressure points of the Cold War, tensions have relaxed since 1979, providing opportunities to resolve contentious issues. Agreements hashed out in the late 1980s allowed families split by the Chinese civil war to reunite. The PRC's Defense Ministry even offered Taiwan autonomous status if it were to accede to unification with the mainland -- a gambit rejected by the Taiwanese government.
A fragile peace appeared to emerge in the thaw of the Cold War. The tentative pact required each side to accept the principle of "one China," (that is, the PRC only), along with other points that compose the so-called "1992 Consensus."
Yet diplomatic efforts continually faltered, and a pattern of periodical escalation and relaxing of tensions continued through the 1990s.
Chinese military exercises off the coast of the mainland, including missile tests too close for Taiwan's comfort provoked the United States to deploy forces to the region in 1996.
Subsequent talks achieved little, and their failure may have been partially responsible for putting current President Chen Shui-bian in office in the 2000 election.
Once in power though, Chen surprised many by issuing several promises: Taiwan would not declare independence barring military action by China; the national flag and name would remain the same; a two-state principle would not find its way in the constitution; a change to the status quo would not happen through referendum; and the National Unification Council, a group that advocates Taiwan's merger with China, would not be abolished.
However, when Chen repudiated the 1992 Consensus, essentially shelving 10 years of discussions, China reacted by deploying missiles aimed at Taiwan. Chen then turned up his pro-independence rhetoric, eventually proposing a referendum to decide whether Taiwan should procure defensive arms.
This measure failed to attract a quorum of voters, revealing that the majority of the Taiwanese electorate wants neither unification with the mainland nor independence, but rather the status quo.
In March 2005, China adopted legislation prohibiting the formal secession of Taiwan from the Chinese mainland, empowering the PLA to act militarily if Taiwan were to declare independence.
Most moderate Taiwanese officials, like Chairman Ma of the KMT, weighed in cautiously against the bill, but hardliners within the Pan-Green Coalition, a Taiwanese pro-independence movement, responded with fervent protests, nearly the largest in Taiwanese history.
Diplomacy successfully diffused that crisis, and a framework for cooperation emerged between former KMT Chairman Lien Chan and Chinese President Hu Jintao.
Following DPP losses in the 2005 parliamentary elections, President Chen cracked down upon the National Unification Council, breaking his promise and alarming international observers. Taiwan stopped just short of abolishing the NUC, agreeing on the policy that it would have to "cease to function" and "cease to apply."
President Hu responded to the change, saying, "despite the strong opposition within and outside the island, the Taiwan authorities went its own way," and calling the move "a dangerous step on the road toward 'Taiwan Independence.'"
But ideological differences aside, the economic relationship between the two has only strengthened immensely in recent years.
Trade between the mainland and Taiwan reached a record $71 billion in 2005. Over 100,000 Taiwanese firms operate in the mainland, creating more than 10 million jobs. Even travel flourishes, although far more for Taiwanese who have higher disposable incomes.
Taiwan overall remains much more economically dependent on China than China is on Taiwan, a reality that hardly goes unnoticed by Taiwanese policymakers who view dialogue as the only solution to the straits' impasse.
For his part, Chairman Ma of the KMT believes that "a lack of mutual confidence," as well as "a lack of consensus on the definition of the status quo" hampers negotiations, and have resulted in the ongoing standoff.
"A common vision for the future" is crucial to the diffusion of the situation, he says, and that such a vision should revolve around mutual "peace and prosperity."
The KMT, if it were to take power in 2008, would affirm the promises that President Chen articulated when he took office in 2000, according to Ma. But the party would also seek negotiation of "a peace accord with mainland for, say, 30 years, 40 years, or 50 years" in to the future, plus an improvement of economic, educational, and cultural ties.
A permanent peace must be sought, he said, since "rocking the boat" and increasing tensions in the Taiwan Strait will likely lead to militarization, which will divert resources that "could be used for economic development, education and social welfare instead of for war preparations."
