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Walker's World: Ambiguity Rules Mid-East

By MARTIN WALKER, UPI Editor

WASHINGTON, Feb. 13 (UPI) -- Hamas reacted angrily Monday to the last-minute ploy of the outgoing Palestinian parliament that sought to rob the militant Islamist movement of the fruits of their victory in the Palestinian elections.

The outgoing parliament, dominated by the Fatah old guard, passed a new law authorizing the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to name appointees to a new constitutional court that will have the powers to block all new legislation by the incoming parliament. Hamas with 74 seats in the 132-seat chamber will dominate the new parliament.

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"This (old) parliament has no mandate and no authority to issue any new legislation," protested Hamas deputy Said Siyam.

But there was a further twist in yet another resolution from the outgoing parliament, which makes all members of the incoming legislature, dominated by Hamas, into members of the Palestine Liberation Organization's (PLO) parliament in exile. This interesting feature of this move is that the PLO charter recognizes the state of Israel, which Hamas does not.

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The effect of this is to add to the growing sense of ambiguity around the prospects of Hamas in power. Hamas will now be able to say that they do indeed recognize Israel, just as the United States and the Europeans and the internationally agreed Road Map all insist, even while the Hamas charter denies Israel any legitimacy.

More confusion has emerged over the way the international community views Hamas. The so-called Quartet of Britain, Russia, the United States and the U.N., is no longer in accord. To the intense irritation of United States and British officials, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have broken the common front by inviting Hamas leaders to Moscow for talks -- even without agreeing to the three conditions the Quartet has demanded of Hamas: to disarm and disavow terrorism, to recognize Israel and to accept previous agreements with it.

The move toward recognition of Hamas is gathering strength. France suggested Friday that they backed the Russian move, and so did Turkey. Hamas leaders are also trying to arrange an invitation from the new Iraqi government in Baghdad, which would present the Bush administration with something of a dilemma. If the Iraqi government is truly independent, they can do what they wish, including inviting a group the Americans define as terrorists.

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A similar ambiguity is building around the future finances of the Palestine Authority, which depend almost entirely on subsidies from the international community. On the one hand, laws in the U.S. and political decisions in Europe preclude the financing of a body like Hamas that sponsors terrorism. On the other hand, nobody wants to see a humanitarian disaster in the West Bank and Gaza, which would be the likely result of blocking the finds.

So ambiguous solutions are being sought, from proposals that Hamas appoint a government of non-political technocrats to the prospect of continuing 'humanitarian' funding through non-government organizations or the United Nations.

There is intense pressure to do this, senior European diplomatic sources have told United Press International, because the oil-rich government of Iran is waiting in the wings with an open wallet, eager to fund whatever part of the (PA budget the Europeans try to block).

Now a further ambiguity has arisen about the extent of the land where the PA rules. In an exclusive report Monday the Israeli paper Haaretz claimed that Israeli security forces have over the past six months discreetly imposed a new security regime in the eastern half of the West Bank that in effect seals off the Jordan Valley and all access to the Jordanian frontier.

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"Some 2,000,000 Palestinians, residents of the West Bank, are prohibited from entering the area, which constitutes around one-third of the West Bank, and includes the Jordan Rift, the area of the Dead Sea shoreline and the eastern slopes of the West Bank mountains," Haaretz reported.

"This picture of such a large Palestinian area being absolutely cut off from the rest of the West Bank has emerged from tours and talks Haaretz has conducted in the area over a period of a number of weeks, from testimonies gathered by the B'Tselem human rights organization and reports from officials from the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Human Affairs," Haaretz added.

Yet a further question arose after the Israeli cabinet meeting Sunday, whether the Israelis will grant the travel permits to let Hamas delegates take their seats in the PA Parliament for its swearing-in, scheduled for Feb. 18. And if Israel then finds itself dealing with what former premier Benjamin Netanyahu calls "Hamas-stan," then new rules will apply. Israel can block the payments of some $50 millions a month that collects in tariffs and taxes on the PA's behalf, will stop issuing special travel passes for PA leaders and block or delay talks on low-profile but important border issues like access to ports and power supplies, to water and sewage systems. In effect, Israel with its stranglehold over the PA's supply and logistics chain can make it almost impossible for Hamas to rebuild much of a normal life in the West Bank.

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It is impossible to predict the combined effect of all these various ambiguities which now surround the prospects for Israel-Palestine relations, except to say that while politics and the public statements of politicians like the clarity of declarative statements, diplomacy has always thrived in ambiguity. There will be a very great deal of opportunity for creative diplomats in the months ahead.

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