BEIRUT, Lebanon, Feb. 14 (UPI) -- A year after the assassination of Lebanon's former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri led to the withdrawal of Syrian forces, the Lebanese are still struggling re-build a sovereign and democratic state while trying to protect their unity and security. Their future, however, depends largely on survivng dramatic changes in the region.
Hariri's killing in a massive explosion that targeted his convoy in Beirut Feb. 14, 2005 unleashed unprecedented nationalist sentiments.
Hundreds of thousands of angry mourners took to the streets to participate in Hariri's funeral, and for the first time shouted daring calls for the pullout of the Syrian forces -- calls that hinted at Syria's suspected involvement in the assassination.
Syria's allies in Lebanon reciprocated by organizing a counter-demonstration. Those demonstrating included the Shiite Hezbollah group, the Amal Movement and nearly 700,000 people who wanted to show gratitude to Damascus for its support.
A week later more than one million people, Christians and Muslims, flocked to what became known as "Freedom Square," just a few yards from where Hariri and his companions were buried in Beirut's downtown area. As well as demanding an end to Syrian military presence and political interference in Lebanese affaires, they were aspiring to be free, independent, sovereign and unified. They also wanted to know the "truth" behind Hariri's assassination.
The Lebanese got a big boost from the international community when the United Nations formed a special committee to investigate the assassination.
The investigation was first led by German prosecutor Detlev Mehlis; he ordered the arrest of top Lebanese security services commanders and requested an interview with Syrian President Bashar Assad and other Syrian security and political officials before being replaced by Belgian prosecutor Serge Brammertz. One year later, the investigation continues.
Despite the ongoing investigation, security in Lebanon was shaken repeatedly by the assassination of three anti-Syrian figures and the attempted assassinations of two others by a series of explosions that hit Christian areas. Accusing fingers were pointed at Syria, prompting Hariri's son and heir, Saad, as well as a number of Syria's opponents, to seek refuge in Paris. Syria repeatedly denied any link to Hariri's assassination and the subsequent killings in Lebanon.
The withdrawal of Syrian forces in April 2005 allowed the return to the political scene of Christian leaders: former army commander Gen. Michel Aoun returned from 15 years of exile in France and Lebanese Forces commander Samir Geagea was released after 11 years in prison.
New parliamentary elections -- the first without a Syrian presence -- were held. They gave the majority in the House to Saad Hariri and his allies and paved the way for Christian-Muslim alliances, bringing together wartime foes and disengaging long-time allies.
Consequently, a new cabinet was formed. Hariri's long-time associate and finance minister Fouad Siniora became prime minister. For the first time Hezbollah participated in the government. Yet failure to engage in political dialogue persisted. The different parties failed to agree on a mechanism to tackle U.N. Security Council Resolution 1559, calling for the disarming of Hezbollah and the Palestinians.
Disagreements over deposing President Emile Lahoud, a staunch pro-Syrian ally, and Syria's possible responsibility in Hariri's killing soon surfaced. This deepened differences among the new players and paved the way for new alliances, such as the one struck last week between Hezbollah's chief Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah and Aoun, head of the Free Patriotic Movement.
Druze leader Walid Jumblat and Christian leaders started to openly question Hezbollah's right to retain weapons. Questions were also asked about the purpose of allowing Palestinian factions to keep their arms.
"The intensity of the struggle in Lebanon is set to increase," said political analyst Amin Kammourieh. "Lebanon will continue to be the scene for exchanging messages between the United States on one hand and Iran and Syria on the other."
Kammourieh sees the hope to build a strong Lebanese state, which surfaced with Hariri's assassination, diminishing as "we prove to be a group of religious communities and sects."
He said the failure to tackle in depth the reasons that plunged Lebanon in the 1975-90 civil war only increased "the rift among the Lebanese and such a rift can only be eliminated with establishing a real democratic system."
A demonstration last week by angry Muslims who marched to the Danish Embassy located in the Christian neighborhood of Ashrafieh to denounce cartoons published in a Danish newspaper considered harmful to Prophet Mohammed turned into riots and was close to plunging Lebanon in a new sectarian strife. Syria was again accused by some Muslim and Christians of having a hand in inciting the troubles.
The accusations remains to be proved but Lebanese authorities will have to further investigate whether the country is facing an emerging Sunni-Jihadi extremist trend and is becoming a hotbed for Muslim fundamentalists.
"The margin of freedoms that became available a year ago (after Hariri's assassination and the Syrian pullout) has allowed religious fundamentalism among Christians and Muslims without exception to flourish," said Michel Samaha, former Information Minister.
Samaha referred to what he termed as a provoked "build-up" between Sunnis and Shiites and said "This wouldn't have been possible had Hariri been alive, despite all the problems in Iraq."
He said Hariri acted as "a buffer zone" between the various political and religious groups and was able -- despite his differences with Syria -- to "be the sponge that absorbs differences preventing them from leading to explosion."
"It is true that the Syrian Army pulled out from Lebanon, but all the interests of the world players in the region infiltrated our scene," Samaha said.
"Things may have changed but our situation as far as sovereignty is concerned has not and you just need to watch how the (Western) ambassadors are acting ... this is not safeguarding the Lebanese situation but using Lebanon and the Lebanese as tools to serve their plans in the region."
Although the Lebanese long for freedom and sovereignty, many look with suspicion at U.S. plans in the region and fear they might again be the victims of the big powers' interests in re-arranging Iraq's political structure, solving the Palestinian problem, achieving the disarming of Hezbollah and preserving Israel's security.
"Lebanon cannot be disengaged from what's going on in the region, starting from Palestine, to Egypt, Syria and from Syria to Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the Gulf and now what will happen in Iran," Samaha said.
The possible bombing of Iran's nuclear sites by the United States or Israel would only lead to a horrifying scenario in which Tehran could retaliate by hitting back at Israel and the oil fields in the Gulf as well as unleashing the Iraqi Shiites -- so far under control -- against the U.S. and British occupying forces there. Fears that Hezbollah might target Israel from south Lebanon were echoed.
"What kind of a Pandora's Box they the (United States) are to open (if they hit Iran)? What would be its impact on Lebanon in the absence of leaders (like Hariri) able to absorb such repercussions?" asked Samaha.
The Lebanese are at odds over whether Lebanon can benefit from Iran's support and the emerging alliance between Tehran and Damascus or if it should remain on the safe side of adopting a neutral stance.
Lebanon's protectors, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt -- which both fear that the collapse of the Syrian regime might lead to "another Iraq" where Muslim fundamentalist groups along the lines of al-Qaida might flourish and expand to their countries -- have been trying to mediate to improve the Lebanese-Syrian ties that deteriorated after Hariri's assassination.
Even if the international investigation concludes that Syria was involved in Hariri's assassination, the collapse of its regime would be an Arab red line -- at least for the time being.
