TEL AVIV, Israel, Dec. 19 (UPI) -- Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is due to leave the Hadassah Hospital in Jerusalem Tuesday morning, following a mild stroke.
His doctors recommended rest but the political scene he will encounter is unlikely to give him much time for that: Fighting continues around the Gaza Strip, Israel's actions in the occupied territories might influence the outcome of Palestinian elections, slated for January, and inadvertently boost Hamas' rising popularity. And then he himself is running at the head of a brand new party for the March 28 Knesset elections.
Sharon is not a young man but that has not slowed down his thirst for power. On February 26 he will be 78 years old. When he was reminded of this by Israeli editors earlier this month, he replied in Hebrew, "In four months time ...I shall be 78. I think it's the right age to start running kadima." Kadima means 'forward' but it is also the name of his new party.
Sunday night's stroke shocked the country. Sharon felt ill when he left Jerusalem for his farm in the Negev, and his convoy quickly turned back and headed for the Hadassah Hospital. Its director, Yair Birenbaum, later told reporters Sharon had suffered "a minor cerebral event."
Sharon was conscious at all times, was neither dizzy nor confused, although he did have slight difficulty speaking. The doctors attributed the stroke to a small blood clot that disappeared causing "no damage or residues," said Prof. Tamir Ben-Hur of the Department of Neurology. "He is fit to function as prime minister...after a brief rest he can return to full activity," Ben-Hur told reporters.
The stroke nevertheless drew attention to Sharon's age and health. As a young paratroop officer he was well built but for more than 30 years has been suffering from the effects of being overweight.
At least one party, the hawkish National Union, raised the issue. Prof. Arieh Eldad, a plastic surgeon by profession who is also a National Union Knesset member observed that between a quarter and a third of the people who suffer brain stroke die within a year of its first occurrence. Nobody would board a flight whose captain has a 25 percent chance of suffering a cerebral stroke in the air, Eldad said.
However Dr. Ronen Leker, a senior Hadassah Hospital neurologist who treated Sharon, said the prime minister has "almost returned" to the condition in which he had been before the stroke. The speech impediment was very minor and is over. Now that the doctors know what caused the stroke, they are treating him against a recurrence, Leker added.
Israeli law provides that if the prime minister is temporarily "unable" to carry out his duties, his deputy would fill in. If that situation continues for 100 days the president must initiate moves to form a new cabinet.
That means Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert would have taken over until Sharon recovered, until the elections, or should 61 legislators back another Knesset member for prime minister, that person would be asked to form a new government.
Monday night Cabinet Secretary Israel Maimon discussed the situation with Attorney General Menahem Mazuz but the two concluded there was no need to act since Sharon was able to carry on, said the Chairman of the Knesset House Committee Ronnie Bar-On.
The stroke nevertheless occurred at an awkward time for Kadima. It is a newly formed party comprising people who left the Likud with Sharon, a few who crossed over from the Labor Party such as former Prime Minister Shimon Peres, and several other prominent Israelis who have joined such as Prof. Uriel Reichman who established the Interdisciplinary Institute in Herzliya.
But Sharon is glue that will hold it all together. "For the time being it is a party that rests on his (Sharon's) broad shoulders," Hebrew University Political Science Professor Avraham Diskin told United Press International.
Analysts and members of parties rivaling Kadima said that without Sharon, the new party would disintegrate. There is not enough to hold those people together, they said.
Olmert and Bar-On, who both went with Sharon to Kadima, argued this week-end that they have a respectable cadre. "It is not a party that we gathered in the street, a few people who have no experience," said Bar-On. Olmert has served in several Cabinet positions and is now also Finance Minister, Zippi Linvni is the highly regarded Justice Minister, Meir Sheetrit the Transport Minister who had been minister of finance, Shaul Mofaz is Minister of Defense.
However Kadima is still a brand new party that lacks hierarchy. There is no clear number two there and Sharon has yet to decide on its list of candidates for the next Knesset. It lacks institutions though it has an office in Petah Tikva near Tel Aviv. Its Knesset members meet in the Cabinet room because they have no suitable office in the Knesset building.
Diskin predicted that Sharon's stroke would not significantly affect Kadima's chances in the polls if the prime minister leaves hospital Tuesday and "nothing dramatic happens by March 28."
There may be a shift of three or four mandates but Kadima is likely to get almost 40 seats in the elections and be way ahead of all its competitors. Even if it loses four mandates it will remain bigger than any other party, Diskin predicted.
In that case it is most likely that it would be asked to form the next cabinet.
Pollster Mina Tsemah, who prepares the public opinion polls for the Yediot Ahronoth newspaper, noted that only 53 percent of Kadima's potential supporters tend to vote for it because Sharon heads it. Forty-seven percent intend to vote for it for other reasons, she said.
Israelis very much want a center party, and at the moment Kadima is the only one that answers that need. That's the second reason why it is doing so well in the polls, she said.
More than three and a half months are left to Election Day and that is a very long time. If Sharon recovers quickly and suffers from no noticeable physical effect, the public may forget Monday's events, she added. She recalled that in 1977 Menahem Begin suffered a heart attack, recovered, and won the elections. It was the first time in Israel's history the Labor Party was defeated.
