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Analysis: A U.S.-German romance

By STEFAN NICOLA, UPI Germany Correspondent

BERLIN, July 13 (UPI) -- U.S. President Bush has come to Germany for what looks like a political love fest, with the president taking every chance to demonstrate how well he gets along with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who could turn into one of his strongest and last allies in Europe.

How times have changed since Bush visited then-Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder in Mainz at the beginning of 2005.

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At the time, Schroeder and Bush exchanged at best icy handshakes and a few forced smiles, after both leaders had viciously disagreed over the U.S.-led Iraq war.

When Merkel greeted Bush Thursday morning on the historic market square in the northeastern German city of Stralsund, in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the president leaned in to kiss both of Merkel's cheeks. The roughly 1,000 people present erupted into surprised cheers.

Experts see Merkel's invitation to show Bush her political home turf (in Stralsund, where the chancellor scored her first victory as a local politician) as a sign how quickly and thoroughly trans-Atlantic ties have improved since Merkel took office late last year.

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"The transformation of the relations is not just in tone, it's also in substance," Gary Smith, head of the American Academy, a privately funded, non-partisan policy research institute located in Berlin, Thursday told United Press International. "There's a new kind of diplomacy which both the United States and Germany are protagonists of. I think of it as a consequential diplomacy... the Germans have become tougher, mainly on Iran."

Speaking of Merkel Thursday, Bush said he was "proud to call her a friend," and added: "I respect her judgement and value her opinion."

That certainly was not the case with Merkel's predecessor Schroeder, who derided Bush to win a second term in office in 2002. That move and his categorical resistance to the war in Iraq sent U.S.-German relations into probably the worst crisis since the end of World War II.

When Merkel took office, the tone changed almost overnight.

"This shows again how important good interpersonal relationships are between leaders," Smith said, and added that whoever observes Bush and Merkel talking behind closed doors, notes how good the chemistry is between them.

In Stralsund, Merkel thanked the United States for helping to bring about German reunification, an event that resonates deep with the chancellor, who grew up in former communist East Germany. The fall of the Berlin Wall jumpstarted her 15-year rise in politics and culminated in her election as Germany's chancellor last year.

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She repeatedly used Bush's favorite word, "freedom," when talking about the people of Stralsund, where in 1989, the East German citizens took to the streets to demand more democracy and human rights. She also said Germany would do its part in the fight against "tyrants and dictators," and against those who support terrorism.

In a move that should displease the German opposition, Merkel did not publicly voice her criticism of the U.S.-run military prison in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. However, she has done that in the past and Bush knows that Merkel would like to see Guantanamo shut down.

While the center-right Christian Democrat Merkel shares more political roots with Bush than Schroeder did, it is also Europe that has changed.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, became an ally in the global war on terror, is turning into a bit of a nuisance: His crackdowns on free press and on opposition groups have worried Washington, where "one has to be concerned that Russia further turns its back on the West and forms a counter alliance with India and China," Henning Riecke, America expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations, a Berlin-based think tank, told German news channel Phoenix.

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Bush's strongest ally, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, approaches the end of his time in government, and is losing support of his pro-American policy. Elections in Poland and Italy led to U.S.-skeptic leaders seizing power and in France, President Jacques Chirac is facing almost certain election defeat, with no one really knowing who will succeed him.

"Elections have taken their toll on America's allies in Europe," Smith said. "Angela Merkel in a very short time has emerged as the strongest and most significant leader in Europe."

Merkel just days after she took office brokered a deal between Paris and London over the EU's finances. In her initial foreign policy tour, she impressed with cool-headed diplomacy and did not hesitate to voice criticism during her stays in Washington and Moscow.

Merkel's confident criticism of Russia's human rights shortcomings have resonated well with Washington, after Schroeder had befriended Putin in a way that left no room for critical politics.

With Berlin taking over the European Union presidency at the beginning of 2007 and hosting next year's Group of Eight summit, Merkel is poised to gain additional power.

At home, Bush faces the lowest popularity ratings since he came into office, and observers say he does well to share common strategies with Merkel, who is also interested that America's problems -- the instability in Iraq and Afghanistan -- are solved before the fire of those conflicts spreads further.

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A common issue continues to be the Iranian nuclear standoff, which both leaders touched on Thursday in their statements. Bush and Merkel expressed unity, with the chancellor letting Tehran know that if it was expecting the international community to become divided over time, "then they will be wrong."

Ahead of the G8 summit in St. Petersburg, Russia, which starts Saturday, both leaders are likely to double-check their strategies and see where they match.

"Chancellor Merkel has always been deeply engaged with the Iranian nuclear conflict," Smith said, adding that the issue would be prominent in St. Petersburg. "I think Washington and Berlin will use the G8 summit as a kind of leverage to get Russians and Chinese on board... they will also try to develop a post-G8 strategy for dealing with Iran."

But before any further strategies were drawn out, both leaders had a chance to keep working on their interpersonal relationship: On Thursday evening, Bush was due to sit down with Merkel and some 60 invited guests for a German-style barbecue in the sleepy town of Trinwillershagen, where a porcupine had been roasting since midday.

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