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Analysis: Yemen tries to strike a balance

By SANA ABDALLAH

AMMAN, Jordan, Feb. 26 (UPI) -- Yemeni officials confirmed Sunday that three al-Qaida prisoners among 23 inmates who escaped from a high-security prison in the capital, Sanaa, have surrendered to the authorities, giving some breathing space for a government caught between a rock and a hard place.

The authorities did not identify the three men, but this was apparently a much-needed development in the crisis that started on Feb. 3 when the convicted detainees, described as "the most dangerous al-Qaida operatives," escaped from the central intelligence prison.

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To add insult to injury for the authorities, many of these very same detainees had previously broken out of their prison in Aden and officials are being investigated for suspected complicity in helping them escape through a 150-yard tunnel.

The surrender of three runaway prisoners is expected to give the government more room to maneuver amid its balancing act between its participation in the U.S.-led war on terrorism and local sympathy for Islamic militants in this conservative society that enjoys a general sense of pan-Arab and Islamic nationalism.

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Analysts say Washington's anger over what appears to have been an easy escape that could not have been done without assistance from the inside and beyond the walls of the prison may ease as the escapees start to emerge.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation and the U.S. military, as well as French investigators, have been involved in searching for these al-Qaida prisoners. Most of them were convicted in the bombing of the USS Cole off the coast of Aden in October 2000, in which 17 U.S. servicemen were killed, as well as the giant French tanker, the Limburg, two years later.

The FBI last week added two of the Yemeni escapees, Jamal al-Badawi and Jaber Elbaneh, on its list of most wanted terrorists and the U.S. State Department offered a $5 million reward for their capture.

Al-Badawi, who led the first prison break in Aden, was indicted by a U.S. federal grand jury for plotting, organizing and helping to carry out the attack on the USS Cole.

Elbaneh was indicted in Buffalo, New York, for giving material support to al-Qaida shortly before the September 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington.

The Yemeni authorities also offered a $25,000 reward for information leading to the capture of each of the 23 fugitives.

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It remains to be seen whether the three men who surrendered came forward out of temptation for the rewards and if they are ready to share information on the whereabouts of the rest of the fugitives.

What is certain, however, is that these men were not captured, indicating that the large scale search operations in the past three weeks by the U.S. military and local authorities may not be an easy success, if successful, given the presumable support and sympathy these men have on the outside, and possibly from within the security services.

The government of President Ali Abdullah Saleh has been struggling with remaining steady by trying to stop al-Qaida operations in the country where there is a general anti-U.S. mood similar to those shared by other Arabs since the Bush administration launched its war on terror in Afghanistan and later the invasion of Iraq.

The direct U.S. involvement in Yemen's security and intelligence services, which began shortly after 9/11 when Washington took part in setting up a new intelligence and anti-terrorism system, has hardly been welcomed at home.

Such American involvement, including fast-spreading reports that U.S. intelligence and anti-terrorism investigators have been interrogating al-Qaida and other suspected militants in Yemeni custody, prompted widespread criticism that Yemen compromising its sovereignty to an unpopular administration in Washington.

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The escape of the prisoners has only added to the government's predicament as the incident revealed growing opposition to Yemen's security cooperation with the United States to a point that it may have infiltrated into the security apparatus itself.

Reports of an impending reshuffle in the Political Security Service after its chief and deputy were interrogated in connection with the prison break may alleviate Washington's anger, but it will likely escalate domestic criticism and put Sanaa in a more difficult spot.

Sunday's announcement of three al-Qaida fugitives surrendering to the authorities may hold off U.S. pressure on Sanaa for the time being, particularly if these men provide leads to the remaining 20 runaways and information on what parties helped in the escape.

Their surrender, as opposed to their capture that could have been bloody, may also ease concern at home of repercussions that could lead to a confrontation.

Analysts say such a confrontation would more likely be violent, considering the widespread firearms carried by virtually every Yemeni man.

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