WASHINGTON, Dec. 7 (UPI) -- Arabs around the world increasingly identify themselves by their nationality rather than their Arab heritage or their religion, according to a new poll.
That should be good news for the United States, which is eager for the Arab world to embrace stability and national order and reject religious extremism.
"But it's not rebounding on us," said James Zogby, president of the polling group Zogby International.
The same poll shows Arab opinions about the United States continue a significant downward slide.
"Negative attitudes about the United States have hardened," said Zogby.
The poll, taken in six Arab countries during the last two weeks of October, clearly identified the reasons for the disaffection: the Iraq war and the perceived treatment of Arabs and Muslims by the United States.
Significantly, U.S. President George W. Bush's promotion of democracy and government reform in those same countries has had almost no impact on attitudes toward the United States.
"No people on Earth are judged by what they say about themselves, but by how they treat people. Arabs don't feel (the United States) is treating them that well and there is a lot they can do to clean up their act," he said.
In all of the six countries polled, the vast majority of citizens have an unfavorable impression of the United States and ranked it last behind China, India and Russia. Some of the unfavorable numbers: Egypt, 85 percent; Jordan, 63 percent; Lebanon, 66 percent; Morocco, 64 percent; Saudi Arabia, 89 percent and United Arab Emirates, 73 percent. Only in Lebanon and the UAE does that represent an improvement over a similar poll taken in 2002.
Younger Arabs have a slightly more favorable view of the United States than Arabs over 30, a fact Zogby attributes to the export of American culture -- movies, food, clothing and consumer products -- to the Middle East.
"I wouldn't start breaking out the champagne yet," Zogby warned, "because the numbers aren't that much better."
Once you get Arab youths off the subject of American culture and values and onto American policies in the world, their attitudes are just as negative as Arabs over 30.
"They are absorbing our culture ... but talk about policy and you get a different picture," Zogby said. "They hate our policies."
Young Arabs perceive a massive gap between America's values and how it behaves in the world, Zogby said.
The most significant change the poll revealed is the Arab embrace of their country of origin as their primary personal identifier rather than their Arab heritage or their Islamic faith.
In 2002, "the best way of defining yourself" to another Arab or to an American was primarily being Arab, with their religion a close second. In the 2005 survey, the best way to define oneself was by nationality among other Arabs, and in four of six cases -- Egypt, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Morocco -- by nationality to Europeans. Religion was the second most often cited definer. Only in the United Arab Emirates was "being Arab" the top identifier. Jordan was split fairly evenly among "country," "being Arab," and "religion."
Saudi Arabia is the most interesting case, according to Zogby.
Al-Qaida and Osama bin Laden have had an active campaign to destabilize the Saudi state, but the campaign of terror and violence seems to be backfiring, Zogby said. In 2002, 64 percent of Saudis polled identified themselves as Arab first. That dropped to 16 percent in 2005. In 2002 only 8 percent identified themselves as Saudi Arabian first. That shot up to 33 percent in 2005, beating out "religion," which increased over the same period from 17 percent to 28 percent.
"It's as if they are saying 'we are not that,'" Zogby said of the Saudi people who answered the poll, contrasting themselves against al-Qaida.
Zogby could not offer a single reason why these countries are looking more inward, and neither could he say that a shift toward nationalism and away from pan-Arabism and Islam will increase stability.
The United States is certainly encouraging shifts along those lines; pan-Arabism and an embrace of Islam at the expense of other loyalties run counter to U.S. desires for order, stability and democracy in the region.
But Zogby warned the ramifications of this are not yet clear.
"It's a case of 'be careful what you wish for,'" he said. "There's no way of assessing its effect on stability. It can be a good thing or a bad thing. It's too early to tell."
The poll also identified those concerns closest to Arabs' hearts. Significantly, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not even in the top four. It was number two in 2002. In the latest poll, it dropped to number 7 in rank.
Arab concerns, like their national identities, have turned inward, and the responses look remarkably like American polls: they want better and more jobs; better access to health care, better educational opportunities and an end to corruption and terrorism.
The polls showed a level of optimism about the future: The respondents said the conditions are better now than they were four years ago, and they expect they would continue to improve.
But that optimism presents both opportunity and danger. If the expectations for improvement in the areas of most concern are not met, it could mean trouble down the line.
"The ground is fertile in many (ways) to crack down on extremism, but the roots of extremism are also there," he said.
Zogby said the polls point to the way ahead if the United States wants to both encourage optimism, address fundamental problems that affect Arabs, and improve U.S. standing in that part of the world.
"If the United States wants to offer help in their countries rather than lecture on women driving and holding elections, our policies ought to focus on infrastructure building, on better health care, education and increasing employment," Zogby said.
