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Analysis: Fast-moving succession in Sudan

By WILLIAM M. REILLY, UPI U.N. Correspondent

UNITED NATIONS, Aug. 2 (UPI) -- Sudan, a country used to years of violence and turmoil, suffered another bloody blow Tuesday with the untimely death of former rebel leader, Vice President John Garang.

"We have to wait and see exactly what happens," Princeton Lyman, a former ambassador to Nigeria and South Africa and director of African Policy Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations told United Press International. "There are good reasons for both parties to continue. Both have a stake in it."

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The "stake" the two sides have is peace, reached in an agreement signed last January between the government and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement, which was headed up by Garang, often described as charismatic and "larger than life," a physically big man who led the decades-long fight in the nation's south against Khartoum.

He saw it as generally against under-represented Africans in the south against the Arab north.

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Garang was killed with several others this weekend when the helicopter they were flying in from a meeting in northern Uganda back to south Sudan crashed in bad weather.

The U.N. Security Council Tuesday called for calm and urged the world to rally around the Sudanese people.

"Garang's death should not deter the Sudanese peoples' struggle for justice and dignity and encourages all the people of Sudan to refrain from violence and to maintain peace in the midst of mourning," said Ambassador Kenzo Oshima of Japan, this month's president the 15-nation panel.

"This is a time for the world community to come together to support Dr. Garang's vision of a united and peaceful Sudan," he said, reading out a statement. "The council calls on all Sudanese to honur his memory by restoring peace and calm throughout Sudan."

U.N. Undersecretary-General Jean-Marie Guehenno, head of the Department of Peacekeeping Operations, after briefing the council on the situation in the northeastern Africa nation, said, "On the circumstances of the accident, all indications point to an accident" involving Garang's death.

Deputy Ambassador Omar Manis of Sudan agreed, pointing out an SPLM communique agreed with Sudan's President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, it was "an accident" and no foul play was involved. "So far, inside, Sudan, there has not been any suspicion."

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Asked about the rioting following announcement of Garang's death, Manis told UPI it was a "natural feeling" that just erupted among some people. He said there was more calm Tuesday than Monday, when dozens were killed in an around the capital.

Manis said he did not anticipate any particular problems in the immediate future, "not at all, as long as we have a strong partner in the SPLM and there is a will to go forward."

Both the government and the SPLM acknowledged the peace accord allowing Garang to take office went beyond personalities.

Besides becoming first vice president on July 9, Garang was also president of the south.

Garang's No. 2 in the SPLM, Salva Kiir, was swiftly chosen by the group's leadership to replace Garang, indicating a willingness to continue.

As for when Kiir would become first vice president, Manis said. "as soon as the funeral (for Garang, expected Wednesday) is over Kiir will get to take up his post as vice president and (there will be) implementation of the peace process in general."

Was Garang's death a setback for that process?

"It is hard to speak of a setback, but of course you can imagine the vacuum of such a charismatic leader's passing," Manis said. "But the political institutions are there. The political will from both parties is there and they are working together to bring calm, first to the riots and the people. That is an excellent sign, we were in the middle of final consultations concerning setting up the Government of National Unity. There is a strong commitment to go forward."

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Guehenno agreed, telling reporters he told the Security Council, "The information we got from the mission is that things are under control and the violence hopefully will subside and is subsiding.

"It's very encouraging to all, the leaders of Sudan, both on the government side and on the SPLM side are saying the same thing, that an agreement goes beyond the personalities and that the best way to honor the memory of John Garang is to now implement the agreement. The mission stands ready to help the Sudanese people and I do hope in the weeks and months ahead we will stay the course of peace in Sudan."

The chief U.N. peacekeeper continued, saying, with the SPLM appointment of Kiir, the movement's leadership "very much appears to want to keep things and the institutions working according to the comprehensive peace agreement."

He said deployment of the peacekeeping force continues and did not expect it to be speeded up.

"We have no intention to change our plan. We will continue to deploy throughout Sudan," Guehenno said, adding an Italian infantry company already was in place.

UNICEF Executive Director Ann Veneman said, "For the children of Sudan we hope that the peace process continues with optimism."

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She noted Garang was instrumental to establishment in 1989 of Operation Lifeline Sudan, a major international relief effort based on a groundbreaking humanitarian access agreement for aid to war-affected civilians, mainly in southern Sudan.

As one of the three signatories to the agreement along with the president, Garang helped set a new precedent for humanitarian access during civil war.

Former UNICEF Executive Director James Grant brokered the OLS agreement under whose provisions millions of people have been served with life-saving relief since April 1989.

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