WASHINGTON, April 6 (UPI) -- Most analysts agree Saudi security forces have the upper hand in the kingdom's ongoing war on Islamist terrorism whose aim is the overthrow of the royal House of Saud and replace it with a strict Islamic theocracy.
While it is clear the Saudi government had made giant strides -- and enjoyed major successes in its own fight on terrorism -- the war against the pro-al-Qaida insurgency is not entirely over.
Following a fourth day of shootouts between Saudi security forces and Islamist militants, the last day being played out in the capital, Riyadh, one of the kingdom's most-wanted terrorists was killed Wednesday.
Anthony Cordesman, a national security analyst and intelligence specialist with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, says the Saudis have been overall very successful at fighting the threat of Islamist terror.
"They have systematically been able to roll up the terror threat," Cordesman told United Press International, adding, "by and large, al-Qaida in Arabia," the Saudi branch of the pro-Osama bin-Laden terrorist network "has not been convincing."
The kingdom has done a good job, points out Cordesman, but adds the reality is that infiltrating the desert kingdom from Yemen or other borders, across thousands of miles of unguarded frontiers, is relatively easy and to do and very difficult to guard against.
The raid in Riyadh occurred hours after the end of a similar assault that lasted three days in the remote desert town of al-Ras, some 200 miles northwest of the capital. The result, according to the Saudi Interior Ministry, left 14 terrorists dead and six captured; there were 14 casualties among Saudi security forces.
The suspect killed in Wednesday's shootout was identified by the Interior Ministry as Abdul-Rahman Mohammed Mohammed Yazji, number 25 on a government list of 26 most wanted. According to Saudi government sources, Yazji's death brings to 24 the number of terrorists either killed or captured. A second militant was apprehended in the raid, but the government did not identify him.
An Islamic Internet Web site announced the death of two other militants Wednesday -- Kareem Altohami al-Mojati, a Moroccan national, and Saud Homoud Obaid al-Otaibi, a Saudi Arabian, who it says died fighting Saudi security forces.
Saudi news sources believe al-Mojati was suspected of being connected to the May 2003 suicide attack in Casablanca, Morocco, that killed 33 people.
The town of al-Ras, where the militants sought refuge, is known to harbor pro-Islamist sympathies. Its remoteness, and the fact the insurgents chose it as a base would indicate Islamists are trying to keep a low profile, preferring to remain out of the major centers, say intelligence analysts.
Indeed, the Saudis have gone on the offensive against homegrown Islamist terrorism, launching a campaign last December across the nation to reach out to its citizens. Saudi television ran short docudramas depicting Islamist terrorists trying to recruit young Saudis, interlacing them with messages of nationalism, such as military parades, and footage showing the horrors caused by terrorist acts.
Giant posters depicting bomb-damaged buildings and bloodied corpses were prominently displayed in various parts of Riyadh. During a three-day anti-terrorist conference held in the Saudi capital last February, entire front pages of local newspapers displayed pictures of victims of terrorism.
A senior Saudi official told UPI the government had recruited thousands of undercover agents, deploying them in the field, and the results were being felt.
"We are fighting terrorism, those who support it and those who condone it," said Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdulaziz at the opening session of a first Counter-Terrorism International Conference, last February.
Once one of the safest countries in the Gulf, Saudi Arabia has been shaken by a slew of bloody attacks perpetrated by pro-al-Qaida Islamist militants. The attacks left a trail of terror and blood across the country. The violence reached a crescendo last summer with multiple car bombs and assaults by armed gunmen on compounds housing foreign workers and government buildings.
Analysts believe the Saudis are making headway in their war, though the figures and results remain hazy at best. One source, speaking on condition of anonymity, told UPI that some estimates have put the number of Islamist insurgents in the kingdom at several thousands. That figure, however, could be confused with an earlier report from the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies, which in its Strategic 2003-4 Survey cited 18,000 potential al-Qaida militants worldwide.
A Saudi official, also speaking on background, told UPI he estimated the number of al-Qaida activists and supporters did not exceed 5,000. But that would include three tiers of terrorist supporters.
The first tier who probably number in the low hundreds, are the real "crazies," the ones that blow themselves up. The second tier, possibly several hundreds, are the "spotters" those who assist in operations. They are the ones who provide logistics and services and support for the bombers. And finally in the third tier are the sympathizers, those who do not directly engage in acts of terrorism, but who might offer a terrorist a room for a night, or hold onto weapons and explosives. Their number is believes to be the highest, possible a few thousand.
It is worth recalling that at its peak in the 1970s, the Irish Republican Army counted no more than 500 militants, of which maybe 150 were extremists. The West German Baader-Meinhoff gang had even fewer militants -- by some estimates as few as 50 hardcore activists. Yet both the IRA and the Baader-Meinhoff caused havoc for years.
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