WASHINGTON, March 8 (UPI) -- Chechen rebel leader Aslan Maskhadov was killed by Russian forces Tuesday, just days after claiming that a face-to-face dialogue with President Vladimir Putin could finally put an end to fighting.
With the ruthless Shamil Basayev left alone to lead the rebels, Maskhadov's death would appear to dash any chance of a peaceful resolution to a vicious cycle of violence that has raged on for more than a decade. It is also sends a clarion call that Moscow will stop nothing short of burying Chechnya's separatist movement.
In an interview with Radio Free Europe published Tuesday, the slain former president of Chechnya said that Putin was "profoundly misinformed" about the situation in his homeland. Maskhadov held that Putin operated under flawed information passed on by overzealous Russian generals, personal aids and what he referred to as the "puppet" pro-Moscow regime in Grozny, the Chechen capital.
He further contended that a half-hour dialogue with the Russian president would be sufficient to convey his people's interests, chief of which is putting a halt to conflict that has killed an estimated 200,000 Chechens and has forced another 200,000 to flee to neighboring Russian republics.
Maskhadov said that his continued insurgence was the only way to save his "people from arbitrary Russian reprisals and barbarity," and added, "We shall consider we have achieved that goal when we deprive Russia of the right to continue killing Chechens with impunity."
The razing of Grozny under mortar fire in February 2001 and the discovery of a mass grave of mutilated bodies later that year fueled accusations of Russian brutality that still ring loudly. The Russian military was subsequently criticized by international human rights organizations and a number of Western governments for alleged human rights violations in Chechnya.
But the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States shifted global opinion in favor an aggressive stance that divided Chechen rebel ranks. A number of groups employed terror tactics to strike back, illustrated by the October 2002 seizure of a Moscow theater in which 120 hostages were killed.
After the siege of a school in Beslan two years later that ended in a bloodbath with over 330 dead, many observers said both sides had forsaken hopes for a non-violent outcome.
In response to Russian accusations that he was connected to Basayev-led terrorists responsible for Beslan, Maskhadov reiterated his condemnation of attacks on civilians. He blamed Russian actions in Chechnya for driving rebel "madmen" to undertake such a siege, but said "There was no justification."
Maskhadov again urged the Kremlin to accept a cease-fire and agree to peace talks a month ago, but drew no response. He reiterated this call on Tuesday, hours before he was silenced for good.
With the death of Maskhadov, Russia is left without a moderate voice on the enemy side.
According to Martha Brill Olcott, a senior Caucasus expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the killing may make some secular Chechens more willing to see jihadists of Basayev's ilk come to power. She noted that while it may not "shape the resistance," it does severely damage any likelihood of a peace process.
Unlike Basayev, Maskhadov was a former officer in the Soviet army who had experience outside of military fatigues. He was elected to a five-year term as president in 1997 and looked comfortable in a blue suit. Even after Russian redeployment in Chechnya forced his ouster, he never lost his willingness to negotiate with Moscow.
Now only the black-bearded Basayev, listed as a terrorist by both the United States and United Nations, is left to fill the vacuum. His claimed responsibility for the hostage massacres in Beslan and the Moscow theatre confirms that guns and bombs will do his bidding, even when children are at stake.
In a controversial interview aired Feb. 4 by Britain's Channel 4 news, Basayev threatened to carry out more "Beslan-type attacks in the future" in major Russian cities. He was filmed wearing a black T-shirt that read "anti-terror" in Cyrillic.
"In order to stop this chaos we have to respond in the same way. Cynical though it may look, we are planning these operations, and we will conduct them," Basayev said, adding that his rebels would repeat such attacks "again and again" to show the "true face of the Russian regime."
Five years after Russia redeployed its troops in Chechnya, Russia's most wanted man remains committed to a radical brand of Islam, driven by a greater pan-Islamic vision some experts perceive as verging on apocalyptic.
Asked whether Russia can expect a repeat of Beslan, Glen Howard, president of the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation, said he "has no doubt" there would be a severe reprisal, and "it is only a question of when."
"Russia has shown it is determined to eliminate all moderates and recreate the Chechen elite," Howard said, adding, "Such an action will be met with an even stronger reaction." He noted there will be no shortage of recruits in a country that has 60 percent unemployment.
According to Howard, Maskhadov's death "will empower all radicals" and prolong the conflict another 10 to 15 years, undermining stability throughout the embattled North Caucasus region. His words echoed those of Maskhadov, who, in his final interview, asserted Chechen cause would spread throughout the region unless Russia changed its hostile course.
