DALLAS, Feb. 18 (UPI) -- Texas Gov. Rick Perry's job-approval rating has improved in the most recent poll, but he may still face a bloody fight to win the Republican nomination next year.
Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, and State Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn are considering entering the contest, which would be historic in Texas where the major primary battles in the past were among Democrats.
Republicans rule Texas for the first time in more than 100 years, and the winner of the GOP gubernatorial nomination in 2005 will probably have a cakewalk in November. The focus will be on the primary race, and the talk has already started.
Hutchison, the most popular politician in the state, has put off a decision until this summer on whether she will seek another Senate term or run for governor. She has hired two heavyweight campaign advisers, however, indicating she is gearing up for a battle.
The senior Texas senator hired Terry Sullivan, who most recently ran the successful campaign of Sen. Jim DeMint of South Carolina, and Scott Howell, a media adviser who has worked in the Bush-Cheney campaign and for five GOP senators.
"She has been hiring some attack-dog talent that you don't need if you are running free in a re-election for the U.S. Senate, which she would be," said Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.
Hutchison, who had a 72-percent approval rating in the Scripps Howard Texas Poll released Thursday, would easily win re-election. In the minds of most observers, her hires indicate she has pretty much made her mind up about the governor's office.
Strayhorn, who bills herself as "one tough grandma" in her campaigns, has been a thorn in the side Perry for a long time, and she shows no sign of shying away from the race. She has a 53-percent rating in the same Texas Poll, which surveyed 1,000 adults Jan. 27-Feb. 14. It had a 3-point error margin.
Perry, however, made his best showing in the Texas Poll in about three years with a job rating of 51 percent. A year ago half of Texans disapproved of his job performance.
Luis Saenz, director of Texans for Rick Perry, said the new numbers show the governor's support is growing despite taking on some tough issues in recent years.
Saenz said Perry "will continue to do what is right for Texas. We are glad that growing numbers of Republicans and general election voters think he is doing a great job."
Among Republicans, Perry had 73-percent approval and Hutchison 85 percent, which would be a key factor in the primary showdown. Hutchison enjoys more support outside the GOP among independents and moderates than Perry.
"Governor Perry certainly can be pleased because his numbers are up over what they have been for the last year to 18 months, and that means that although there is still a big gap between he and Senator Hutchison, he may well have some momentum and begin closing that gap," said Jillson.
The outcome of the current legislative session may be a factor in determining what kind of challenge Perry gets next year. The state is under a court order to reform school funding and the wrong outcome could affect his standing.
"Everybody knows there will be some new revenue needed, but if he can come out of this with the idea that we have a new school funding bill and we didn't have to raise taxes very much, he will be in a strong position to contest the Republican primary," Jillson said.
Perry enjoys strong support from conservative Republicans because he closed a $10 billion budget gap in 2003 without raising taxes and the next year won a bitter congressional redistricting battle. His new challenge is school finance.
There is no doubt that Hutchison and Strayhorn are watching closely and they view him as vulnerable or they would have removed their names from the speculation, said Allan Saxe, a political scientist at the University of Texas at Arlington.
"I still think they view him as vulnerable, no question about it, or they wouldn't be talking about it," he said. "They may be right, but boy would that be a bloody primary."
Saxe believes in the end Hutchison or Strayhorn will withdraw from the race. He said they must be under immense pressure within the Republican Party.
"I think that the Republican hierarchy doesn't relish this at all," he said. "They don't want a bloodbath. They already have the governor's office, the state Legislature, the White House. They don't need a huge primary battle, but it looks like they are going to get it."
Saenz, the Perry campaign director, would not comment on how the outcome of the legislative session might impact the decisions of potential challengers.
"Governor Perry is in the race for re-election," he said. "We are preparing here on the campaign side. He is concentrating on having a successful legislative session, and we are concentrating on creating a strong grass-roots organization to be prepared to run an aggressive and effective campaign."
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