MIAMI, Sept. 22 (UPI) -- Hopes that the El Niño weather phenomenon will come riding out of the west and save the nation from more deadly hurricanes this year may be premature, forecasters say.
"The Pacific Ocean temperatures put us on the borderline of an El Niño event right now," said David Zierden, an assistant Florida state climatologist.
He is also a member of the Southeastern Climate Consortium, an organization of professors dedicated to predicting seasonal climate conditions.
"Based on the storm activity we're seeing in the Atlantic, I'm not sure this will come on strong enough to affect the hurricane season," said Zierden.
El Niño occurs every two to seven years when winds in the tropical Pacific that normally blow east to west over the equator ease or reverse, causing warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific.
The phenomenon upsets normal weather patterns worldwide, spurring warmer, wetter winters in the Americas, droughts in parts of Africa and Asia and other climatic anomalies.
Its counterpart, La Niña, follows an El Niño event and has the opposite effect, leading, for example, to drier weather on the west coast of the Americas.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported this month that El Niño will be back and is expected to last through early 2005. The events, however, can last up to 12 to 18 months.
NOAA also said it was not clear what impact the event would have on the weather.
Meteorologist Jim Lushine of the National Weather Service in Miami told the South Florida Sun-Sentinel he doesn't expect El Niño to produce an early end to the flurry of hurricanes this year, or to make them less intense.
"There's not an instant reaction to El Niño on the hurricane season," he said.
But he did say it could be fully in place for the 2005 hurricane season.
"Next season could be quieter. We could use some quiet," he said.
Indeed we could. Florida is suffering through its worse hurricane season in decades.
The trouble started Aug. 13 when Charley hit Punta Gorda as a Category 4 hurricane. Then came Hurricane Frances, which hit Stuart, Fla., Sept. 12 as a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale of 1 to 5.
Ivan arrived Thursday at Gulf Shores, Ala., causing heavy damage. It continued north, causing disastrous flooding as far north as Ohio.
Damage estimates from Ivan range from $2 billion to $10 billion and could go higher. Charley and Frances caused at estimated $11 billion in combined insured losses, and when you factor in other losses such as public infrastructure and tourism the figure goes way up.
Charley and Frances also are responsible for taking 46 lives in this country, and the unofficial toll for Ivan alone is 50.
Getting a final total on the fatalities this hurricane season is going to be iffy at best because so many of them are in the Third World nations of the Caribbean, where counting is difficult.
In Haiti, for instance, Jeanne took an estimated 700 lives in northern sections.
And Jeanne is not done.
Hurricane Jeanne was headed south in the Atlantic with 100 mph winds Wednesday and eventually could turn west in the direction of the U.S. mainland, forecasters said.
An advisory by the National Hurricane Center in Miami said Jeanne could turn northwest by Saturday and move north later in the weekend. That could put the North Carolina coast in jeopardy.
At 11 a.m. forecasters said Jeanne was located at latitude 26.3 north, longitude 68.5 west or about 530 miles east of Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas.
Two other storms posed no immediate threat to land.
Hurricane Karl was located about 1,490 miles west-southwest of the Azores. It was moving north at 14 mph with top winds of 105 mph.
Tropical storm Lisa carried winds of 50 mph and was centered about 1,165 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. It was moving west-southwest at 6 mph.
Long-range forecaster William Gray of Colorado State University has predicted an above-average month of September for hurricane activity but a below average period in October.
His accuracy appears to be assured for September. It's a wait-and-see situation, obviously, for October.
So far, however, Gray says he doesn't expect El Niño to have much of an impact this year.
Jim Jones, a professor of agricultural and biological engineering at the University of Florida and a member of the Southeastern Climate Consortium along with Zierden, warns that El Niño's impact goes beyond hurricanes.
"There's no doubt that an early end to the hurricane season would be good for Florida," Jones said. "But for farmers growing winter crops, the wet weather associated with El Niño would probably encourage crop disease and limit the amount of sunlight during the growing season, cutting crop production."
He also said an El Niño year also could have ill effects in other parts of the country. El Niño typically brings extremely dry weather to the Pacific Northwest, increasing the risk of wildfires.
Southern California, like Florida, would be cooler and wetter, he said.
"If El Niño kicks in you won't be hearing about wildfires in Southern California -- you'll be hearing about mudslides," Jones said.
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