LOS ANGELES, May 28 (UPI) -- Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger appears content enough to rest on the laurels of his latest rarified popularity polls and will lay low over the Memorial Day weekend, forgoing the cemetery speeches and county fairs that are holiday staples of other politicians.
While the heady numbers in this week's Field Poll indicated that an overwhelming 65 percent of California voters approved of Schwarzenegger's performance in office since last fall's election, another survey released Thursday found voters still harbored some strong concerns about the state's economy suddenly going south, which could translate into a rapid evaporation of the governor's support during the pending summer budget negotiations.
"Many Californians feel they have been burned in the past by the budget situation," Mark Baldassare, survey director for the Public Policy Institute of California, said in a release Friday. "Even with a new, charismatic leader, they will likely have to see real fiscal improvements before their pessimism about the state's finances turn around."
Thus far, Schwarzenegger has notched impressive wins in his public backing of a $15 billion debt-relief bond measure and the reform of the state's costly workers' compensation system. The next question will be whether or not the often-volatile budget issue will bring Arnold's honeymoon with Golden State voters to an end this summer.
"People have a pretty high level of suspicion about how sensibly and economically the tax money they send to Sacramento is used," Baldassare noted in reiterating a fact of political life in California that is by no means a big secret.
In fact, the PPIC poll of 2,000 California adults taken in mid-May found that 73 percent of respondents believed the budget was still a major problem facing the state, and only half of those polled liked the proposed spending plan submitted by Schwarzenegger -- while 41 percent weren't happy with it at all.
The laws of political physics that state that nasty partisan bickering causes a negative reaction among the voters could dictate that an extended and bitter fight over Schwarzenegger's budget in the Legislature could tarnish the governor's image no matter how hard he tries to remain behind the scenes and above the fray.
"Despite voters' favorable appraisal of Governor Schwarzenegger and the belief that state finances will get better, a majority (51 percent to 37 percent) still feel that things in the state are on the wrong track," the Field Poll said in releasing its survey of 745 registered voters. "This appraisal is not significantly different than that found in February, although it represents an improvement from polls conducted last summer, before the recall election."
A caveat to the wobbly poll support found by the pollsters would be that many Californians are likely unaware of exactly what is contained in the budget, which is annually updated in what is known as the "May revision."
The Legislative Analyst's Office -- considered the benchmark impartial reviewer of the plan -- was generally favorable despite what it saw as structural problems in the state financial system that still needed to be addressed.
The LAO said in a terse preface to the May revision analysis: "The state's near-term fiscal picture has improved significantly as a result of an improved revenue outlook and the one-time receipt of funds. Despite this improvement, the state's long-term fiscal outlook relative to the January budget plan has worsened."
That wouldn't be considered good news for any governor, particularly when he runs a state that lately has had a notoriously partisan Legislature backed up by cadres of hard-line constituents divided along the issue of taxes and spending.
The chances of a budget standoff this summer are bolstered in the PPIC's survey showing that while 50 percent of the respondents said the budget should have included tax increases, the majority of Republican respondents were against that heretical idea.
In addition, the PPIC stated that "large majorities" of voters were against cuts to education, law enforcement, social services and parks funding.
Californians were also against the concept of raising property taxes and income taxes to finance seemingly important public services, and a proposed 3-percent telephone tax to finance hospital emergency rooms that is on the November ballot was trailing among likely voters by 56 percent against to 41 percent in favor.
The seeming inability to get behind either serious spending cuts or painful tax increases can be chalked up to human nature, but when the Legislature actually goes to work on the budget proposal, voters may have to take sides.
The same can be said for Schwarzenegger, who has gone to great lengths to be "the people's governor" who says he will fight for the downtrodden of both parties against politics as usual in Sacramento.
"People see the budget situation as something brought on by others and apparently do not fault the governor," Baldassare said.
One worst-case scenario would see Schwarzenegger forced to publicly campaign for cuts in social services over higher taxes for the upper crust, while at the same time making campaign appearances on behalf of President Bush, whose statewide approval ratings in the PPIC poll fell to 41 percent from 57 percent last summer.
On the other hand, a relatively quick and painless budget battle would elevate Schwarzenegger from governor to miracle worker.
For now, Schwarzenegger has the support of the public. The upcoming budget negotiations in the Legislature could determine how durable his true political strength, as opposed to lingering movie-star status, really is.
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