MOSCOW, Feb. 25 (UPI) -- Russian President Vladimir Putin fired his government Tuesday, installing the little-known and spectacularly uncontroversial Viktor Khristenko, former deputy minister, as interim prime minister.
With Russia's presidential election less than three weeks away, Putin has promised to name a new prime minister and present a new government to parliament for approval. Guessing whom the next prime minister is likely to be has captured the attention of the political elite, since the new prime minister just might become Putin's successor.
The position of prime minister in Russia is not nearly as prestigious as it is in other countries. Russia's prime minister is primarily charged with overseeing the economy and management of the bureaucracy. As such, the prime minister reports to the president, much like a chief executive officer does to the chairman of the board. The prime minister makes policy decisions; he does not make policy. The prime minister also has little, if any, say concerning ministers who directly report to the president, over the security forces, the military or diplomacy.
In the end, Russia's prime minister is given enormous responsibility without much authority.
However, the position of prime minister has some perks. The prime minister is the official No. 2 in the political hierarchy and the immediate successor to the presidency if the incumbent resigns, is impeached and removed, or dies. Being so close to the summit of power surely makes the position attractive. Vladimir Putin knows what its means to be No. 2 in the pecking order; being a loyal No. 2 earned him the prize of the presidency. And since Putin has already announced he will name his successor, the prize of capturing the No. 2 spot has increased in value.
There are seven major contenders for the job: Outgoing Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, Minister of Defense Sergei Ivanov, interim Prime Minister and former Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Khristenko. There are four contenders in the game not from the former cabinet -- deputy heads of the presidential administration -- Dmitry Kozak, Igor Sechin and Viktor Ivanov, as well as parliamentary speaker Boris Gryzlov.
The smart money sees Kudrin as the strong favorite. He has a background in the security forces and has a strong record as an economic reformist. Kudrin has also backed the government's attacks on oil giant Yukos and the company's principle shareholders while denying the Kremlin is at war with big business. Kudrin in many ways is an ideal candidate to become prime minister. What hurts his candidacy is his stiffness and anything but charismatic character.
Sergei Ivanov is believed to be very close to Putin and in a position that greatly concerns the president. However, Ivanov's tenure as defense minister has been mediocre at best. Disliked by the military brass and unable to reform the armed forces into a lean and mean organization, Ivanov's chances to become prime minister appear to be a long shot. The fact that Ivanov has limited experience with economic issues is another strike against his candidacy.
Interim Prime Minister Viktor Khristenko has held high government positions in both the Yeltsin and Putin governments. An economist by training and media shy, Khristenko is known to rarely state his opinion on policy mandates tasked to him. Unless Putin has some special plans for Khristenko, the interim prime minister will eventually be handed another economics portfolio in the new government.
The gentlemen from the presidential administration, Dmitry Kozak, Igor Sechin and Viktor Ivanov, are widely believed to the brains and brawn behind Putin.
Kozak, a legal expert and head of Putin's presidential campaign, is a person the president likes and trusts. Sechin and Ivanov are Putin's muscle. Both overseeing different elements of the ever-confident security forces, the Sechin and Ivanov duo are more feared than respected. If Putin intends to nominate any of the three, the next government might resemble a militarized bureaucracy waiting for marching orders from the president.
Appointing Boris Gryzlov as prime minister could present a tantalizing glimpse into Putin's understanding of how Russia's parliament may function during his second term and after. Gryzlov, a Putin loyalist to the bone and parliamentary speaker, is known to speak out about a wide array of issues. A former head of the interior ministry, he is also aware of how politics and business intersect. Since Putin has mentioned that a future government could be made responsible to the parliament instead of the president, a Gryzlov candidacy should be seen as formidable.
A little (or a lot) of Putin can be found in all seven contenders. All are bureaucrats; all have been part of Putin's strategy to strengthen the state. All also represent different aspects of Putin's career in politics and state service. When Putin nominates a candidate it may give an indication of what part of his political life he may want his No. 2 to carry on after he leaves the political arena.
(Peter Lavelle is a Moscow-based analyst and author of the electronic newsletter Untimely Thoughts -- untimely-thoughts.com.)
