WASHINGTON, Nov. 16 (UPI) -- President George W. Bush grows more formidable as an election adversary each day as he makes sharp policy changes in Iraq, has good economic news at home and his tax plan will distribute new reductions in 2004.
Bush ended one of the most difficult weeks in the Iraq reconstruction period by making a 180-degree turn in his policy about self-government, applauding an Iraqi Governing Council plan that could see U.S. troops out of the country by next July 1.
"We don't think it will be years and years because, first of all, we think the Iraqi people are capable of running their own country," Bush told David Frost for PBS-BBC's "Breakfast with David Frost," which aired Sunday. "And we think that they want to run their own country."
Last week, in hurried meetings with L. Paul Bremer, the U.S. civilian administrator in Iraq, Bush authorized Bremer to accept suggestions from the Iraqi Governing Council regarding the formation of a national assembly that would assume power by next summer. A constitution and general elections would come later, according to the plan.
Previously the Bush administration desired having the constitution and elections before handing over control, setting a time frame that would have delayed Iraqi self-rule until 2005 -- after next November's U.S. presidential elections.
Meanwhile, the Bush-Cheney re-election campaign was trumpeting The Wall Street Journal's November economic forecasting survey, which found the strong growth in the third quarter, the fastest rate since 1984, appeared more likely to be sustained.
The Journal quoted Saul H. Hymans, a professor of economics and director of economic forecasting at the University of Michigan, as saying that "consumer demand will be even stronger again next year." Hyman's thesis was based on "especially solid gains in purchasing power due to the rising employment, continuing tax cut effects and lower energy prices."
The Labor Department reported a net growth of 126,000 jobs in October, the largest one-month gain since the recession ended in November 2001. Economic growth leaped 7.2 percent in the third quarter, while worker productivity rose 8.1 percent.
This is only a trickle of good news. The United States lost 2.7 million jobs since March 2001 and 8.8 million people remained unemployed.
USA Today reported last week that taxpayers' refund checks would increase next year by 27 percent to an average of $2,500 per family. The winners, the story said, would be the 10 million married couples with a combined income of $47,700 to $56,800. Those couples dropped from the 27-percent tax bracket to the 15-percent bracket. USA Today linked the tax cuts of 2003 to the 19-percent growth in the third quarter. Presumably this money would prime the economy's pump.
Last Thursday on a campaign fundraising stop, Bush collected $2.5 million in Florida in appearances at Disney World's Grand Floridian Resort and Spa and another at the residence of Al Hoffman, Jr. chairman of Watermark Communities, Inc. a company that builds golf retirement communities. These contributions put the Bush-Cheney campaign war chest at more than $100 million. The president is planning to collect $175 million to $200 million to offset Democratic Party fundraising in the primary period.
Two powerful unions endorsed former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean last week giving him unquestionably the mantle of front-runner among Democrats. But Dean has collected just more than $25 million to Bush's $100 million. Dean rejected federal financing Nov. 7, and his opponent Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., followed suit last week, and said he would ask 2 million supporters to donate $100 each to match Bush.
The endorsements American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees and the Service Employees International Union give Dean 3 million highly trained, extremely motivated campaign workers. They also provide access to campaign cash. AFSCME, for instance, spends more on politics than any other union. In the 2000 election cycle, the union spent $40 million, according to political director Larry Scanlon.
The power of the AFSCME is why Republicans worked so hard to pry union jobs out of the Homeland Security and airport security legislations in 2002.
Having said that, however, is to gloss over the Democratic deficiencies in fundraising. Along with Bush's smashing fundraising, the GOP has raised $116 million, compared with the Democrat Party's $44 million. Cash in the end will mean power in television ads and the ability to swamp another candidate.
Joe Trippi, Dean's campaign manager, has been quoted as saying that Bush's advantage can be turned against him. He has a bar graph that shows 70 percent of Bush campaign donors gave $2,000 while 10 percent of Dean's did and more than 50 percent of Dean's gave less than $200.
But Dean's future is not without clouds. When he told the Des Moines Register that he still wants to be "the candidate for guys with Confederate flags in their pickup trucks," Dean was attacked by three of his rivals. Moreover, in a thoughtful article in Sunday's Washington Post, Thomas F. Schaller, who teaches political science at the University of Maryland, argues that reaching for the Southern voter is a waste for the Democrats.
"Trying to recapture the South is a futile, counterproductive exercise for Democrats because the South is no longer the swing region. It has swung: Richard Nixon's 'Southern strategy' of 1968 has reached full fruition," he wrote.
