Long oil rally knows no quarter

NEW YORK, April 25 (UPI) -- The long rally in oil prices continued into Monday even after a report from the International Monetary Fund said another market downturn cannot be ruled out.

Oil prices are up more than 20 percent from the start of April as supply-side pressures ease in response to an expected decline in U.S. output. Talks among major producers like Russia to keep output steady at January prices helped fuel a significant rally this month.

An economic report from the International Monetary Fund on Middle East and North African countries said that, despite efforts to find balance in the region, non-oil economic growth is expected to increase 3.2 percent over the next five years, against the 7.7 percent rate over the nine-year period ending last year.

"The recent increase in oil prices could result in some improvement," the report said. "However, in view of the persistent excess in global oil supply over demand, a further drop in prices cannot be ruled out, especially in the case of a further slowdown in China's growth."

Crude oil prices recovered somewhat from heavy losses overnight. The price for Brent crude oil was up 0.7 percent percent to open in New York at $45.42 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for the price of oil, was up by 0.2 percent to start the day at $43.83 per barrel.

The government in Riyadh, meanwhile, adopted what it called Vision 2030, an economic agenda that in part envisions a Saudi economy that relies less on oil for revenue.

Riyadh is embracing a set of policies and structural reforms. Part of the reform policy includes the privatization of some sectors of the Saudi economy, including the public listing of shares in the Saudi Arabian Oil Co., known also as Saudi Aramco.

The IMF said moves like Saudi Arabia's would be "critical" to reshaping the regional economy in the new energy landscape. A growth model for the region that depends on the redistribution of oil wealth, it said, is no longer sustainable.

Nevertheless, the IMF said downside risks remain.

"A worsening in security conditions or social tensions, reform fatigue, or increased spillovers from regional conflicts could derail policy implementation and weaken economic activity," it said.