BASEL, Switzerland, June 16 (UPI) -- Researches at BAK Basel in Switzerland said a Greek exit from the eurozone would give the Swiss economy a serious jolt.
While that much is assumed by many, BAK Basel attached numbers to the fears and said a disorderly exit of Greece from the 17-nation currency region would drop the Swiss gross domestic product 4 percent over four years, Swissinfo.ch reported Saturday.
Assuming the rest of the eurozone holds together, the Swiss GDP would fall 1.1 percent in the first 12 months following a Greek exit from the eurozone.
In the next 12 months, the Swiss GDP would fall flat, BAK Basel said.
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After that, the Swiss economy would return to its normal levels, except that any growth would first have to regain the lost potential of the previous 24 months before wealth on paper began to grow again.
If a Greek exit begins a domino effect with other countries dropping the euro, the Swiss GDP would go through a far deeper decline, dropping 4.2 percent in the first 12 months and 3.6 percent in the subsequent 12 months, researchers said.
Swiss exports to so-called peripheral eurozone counties, the ones mostly likely to leave the shared currency, represent 14 percent of Switzerland's export market.
But exports to those countries -- including Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal -- would not be the only problem.
"In the face of a eurozone recession, demand would also notably decline from far weightier trading partners such as Germany," the report says.
In Switzerland, the loss of jobs due to a shrinking export market would add to government expenses, slowing the recovery further, BAK Basel said.
A Greek exit from the currency region could be revealed with the country's national election on Sunday.
The election is seen as a referendum for and against the international assistance Greece has received that has come with strident austerity demands.
The Syzira party has pledged to tear up or re-negotiate the terms of the international loans, which could force the country out of the eurozone.
Syzira is running a close race with the New Democracy party, which advocated staying with the terms of the international loans, despite the spending cuts that have contributed to the ongoing recession in Greece.
