SINGAPORE, April 1 (UPI) -- Overlooking the river and the celebrated Boat Quay, the Bar Opiume is one of the favorite yuppie haunts of the financial district in Singapore, usually bustling with drinkers after 7 p.m. But over the last few days, an unusual quietness has descended on this bar and those nearby, as concerns over the spread of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome become more important than the war in Iraq.
Four people have died of SARS in Singapore with a 95 cases reported. And while 52 patients have been discharged from hospital, 39 remain hospitalized, including 13 listed in serious condition.
The government has taken drastic measures to contain the spread of the diseases including isolating all suspected and confirmed SARS patients in one hospital, enhancing infection control measures for hospital staff, closing schools and nurseries until Monday (600,000 students affected) and instituting home quarantine measures for those who have come into contact with anyone diagnosed with SARS.
To guard against further imported SARS cases, the government has tightened screening measures for incoming flights into Changi Airport from affected areas as identified by World Health Organization. Visibly unwell passengers from affected areas will be asked to obtain a doctor's certification before they are allowed to board the flight to Singapore.
But, if Singaporeans are worried, they are still falling short at wearing surgical masks to guard against getting SARs. Though many businesses are distributing those on a daily basis, very few workers in the densely populated district are wearing them.
Joanne Fong, a paralegal secretary sums up the feeling of many: "It looks a bit silly, especially if you're the only one wearing it. But I will wear one if things get worst."
Throughout the island, there are incremental indications that business and entertainment activities are being affected by SARS. Shopping centers, like Takashimaya on the Orchard Road shopping strip, looked eerily quiet this week, while hotels are reporting a fall in reservations and booking cancellations.
"Like the rest of the hospitality sector, SARS, threats of terrorist attacks and war with Iraq have severely impacted travel business. We see travelers cancel or delay their plans, especially within Asia," says Heinrich Grafe, General Manager of Conrad Centennial Singapore.
At lease four cruise lines, including Pacific Venus, have decided to skip Singapore as a stop over.
Concerts by techno-pop superstar Moby and guitarist Carlos Santana have been cancelled, and three international fashion designers that were to attend the Singapore Fashion Festival 2003 also cancelled at the last minutes. Meanwhile, organizers of the Food Festival 2003, which is slated to run all of this month, are slashing entry prizes.
Voices of gloom are being raised, with some predicting the Lion-state could fall back into recession.
But many economists believe it is still too early to assess the impact of the disease.
"This is a time for sobriety in all our assessments. In the society and markets, there are a lot of fears, but preliminary assessments indicate that the outbreak (of SARS) is contained," notes Cliff Tan, analyst at Citigroup.
Tan believes that if SARS is contained within the next two months, it will shave off only 0.25 percentage points of gross domestic product growth. "If the outbreak is not contained and last for the remaining of the year, it could take of 0.5 percentage point," Tan adds.
However, Song Seng Wun, a regional economist at GK Goh brokerage disagrees.
"This SARS outbreak will definitely have a significantly drag on Singapore's GDP growth if the spread of SARS cannot be resolved in coming few weeks. This is because Singapore is a very open economy, dependent hugely on international trade of goods and services," he says, adding the problem could potentially be much bigger than just the impact on retail sales or reduction in tourist arrivals.
Advance figures from the Singapore Tourism Board showed that visitor arrivals fell 9 percent year on year in the first three weeks of March, the combined effect of SARS and the war in Iraq.
Song predicts tourist arrivals could fall as much as 7 percent this year. The last time Singapore had a sharp fall in tourism was in 1998, when arrivals fell 13.3 percent. That year, the commerce sector shrank 6.1 percent, with the economy contracting 0.1 percent.
"If visitor arrivals were to fall 5-7 percent this year, the commerce sector is expected to fall by 2-3 percent and this would pull down the services-producing sector growth to 0-0.5 percent from 1.5 percent in 2002," Song notes.
Song expects the first quarter data to come around 2-2.5 percent, down from his previous forecast of 3 percent reflecting weaker growth from the services sector, particularly in March. For the whole year, he has lowered its GDP forecast from 3.8 percent to 2.0 percent.
The deputy prime minister had forecast a 2.7 percent GDP growth for the first quarter earlier this year.
