Early 2023 seems like 'worst of times,' but it could turn around

With roughly 50 weeks left in 2023, what can Americans expect about how this year will unfold? To borrow from Dickens, will 2023 be the best or worst of times at home and abroad?

Obviously, optimists will seize the opportunities that exist to make progress on both fronts, no matter the highly divisive and divided character of American politics. However, the broader array of actual and potential crises support the pessimistic assessment of the likelihood of a much greater negative future .

Selectively, history can make a strong case for both prospects.

A century ago, following the Spanish flu pandemic and the end of a world war, in 1923 the United States embarked on the greatest economic boom in its history and the "Roaring '20s." Pent-up demand during the war found its outlet. Henry Ford and Walter Chrysler were producing automobiles affordable to many Americans. With the National Highway Act passed under the Harding administration, huge demand for steel, rubber, leather, gasoline, roads, gas stations and restaurants and lodgings was created.

The best of times came to an abrupt end in October 1929. And a decade later, World War II erupted. However, given the potentially revolutionary and transformative technologies that are the 2023 equivalent of Ford and Chrysler, will another economic boom be created? Or will debt, inflation and rising interest rates lead to a recession and a hard economic landing? The worst of times may emerge as the more likely outcome for this critical reason: 2023 will bring an even more broken U.S. government.

Why? The brouhaha over the selection of Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., as House speaker is endemic and symptomatic of what is wrong with government. While Republicans argue the worst is behind, the profound divisions in that party remain. The fight over the speakership will move to specific issues over rules; roles of committees; and, of course, the debt ceiling and spending. And the few will dominate the many in the House.

In past Congresses, the few ended up being contained by the many. Today, that condition has been reversed. In the Senate, that is not only manifested in the filibuster, whereby one senator can block proceedings. With a 50-50 or even 49-48-3 Senate, one or two senators can make demands that the majority must accept if legislation is to be passed. In the 117th Congress, Sens. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., possessed huge leverage.

Is the future of majority rule in Congress problematic? If the few in the House can control the many, will that body be able to work with a Democratic Senate? If not, how will or can critical, time-sensitive and explosive issues be resolved? Perhaps they will not and government will continue to fail.

Debt ceiling is one such time bomb. Republicans demand a balanced budget to stop deficit spending and increasing the $31.4 billion debt. But politically and pragmatically, is that possible? If Congress does not raise the debt ceiling, government will shut down.

Shut downs are not uncommon: 1995, 2013 and 2018 were the most recent. But mandatory, non-discretionary transfer payments for Social Security, interest and healthcare are increasing. And a majority of Congress does not wish to cut defense spending. So is another shutdown inevitable?

Internationally, Ukraine, Russia, China and Taiwan are among the most obvious dangers. One area of bipartisan agreement is the primacy of the China threat. However, the impact of a zero-COVID policy on China has huge international economic, geostrategic and political consequences -- mostly all bad.

A slowdown in China's economy will hurt global economies. Instability challenges the leadership and control of the Chinese Communist party, raising a range of unpleasant contingencies. And U.S. strategy so far omits dealing with these realities.

The war between Ukraine and Russia is more uncertain. The Biden administration promises to "do whatever it takes" to support Ukraine. But at some stage, limits must come into play. No president will or could tolerate issuing a blank check to another country that could lead to a wider war. Yet, the White House has not disclosed whether it has or is working on a strategy for ending the conflict in Ukraine.

In the early days of 2023, it would seem Dickens' worst of times is in ascendency. But will the best of times rally? That question will be determinant in how 2023 turns out. Unlike Dickens' book, which concludes with the demise of Sydney Carton, can 2023 be saved from a looming metaphorical Damoclean guillotine? The current betting does not suggest a happy ending.

Harlan Ullman is senior adviser at Washington's Atlantic Council, the prime author of "shock and awe" and author of "The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large." Follow him @harlankullman.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.