COLOMBO, Sri Lanka, Jan. 19 (UPI) -- The two main contenders in next Tuesday's presidential election in Sri Lanka were given the most credit by their majority Sinhalese people for ending the civil war for a separate Tamil homeland, but as the polling date approaches, it may be the minority Tamil vote that decides the final outcome.
President Mahinda Rajapaksa announced the Jan. 26 election seeking another term although he had two more years remaining in his current one.
He is being challenged by a number of contenders, chief among them, retired army Gen. Sarath Fonseka.
Both were lauded for spearheading the military's victory last May that ended the 26-year-old campaign by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam for a separate homeland for the Tamil-speaking minority. About 70,000 people died in the war.
The ethnic Tamils constitute about 12 percent to 13 percent of the island nation's population of about 21 million, most of them Buddhists.
The final days of the war were brutal. The United Nations estimated some 7,000 civilians died and tens of thousands more wounded as they were caught in the cross fire. The final assault also killed most of LTTE's top leaders, including its elusive chief Vellupillai Prabhakaran.
But things started to go wrong for the Rajapaksa government in the post-war period. Its biggest challenge was containing the growing international criticism of its treatment of nearly 300,000 Tamils displaced in the final assault. These refuges were placed in military-run camps under what U.N. officials described as inhuman and atrocious conditions. The camps' prison-like conditions further alienated the minority community.
As the world learned of the plight of the displaced persons, the Sri Lankan government and its military came under intense pressure from the United Nations, human-rights groups and donor countries, which spared no words in their condemnation. There were even calls for a war crimes investigation of the Sri Lankan government.
The government asserted it was doing all it could for the refugees with its limited resources, while insisting it had to ensure at every step that there were no Tiger rebels hiding among the DPs.
The camps were finally opened recently and the government has said most of the refugees have returned home with only about 80,000 left in the camps.
Fonseka became a presidential candidate after resigning his top military post last November following a fallout with the Rajapaksa government in the aftermath of the military victory.
Currently, with Rajapaksa and Fonseka running neck and neck, splitting the majority Sinhalese votes, it has come down to an intense scramble for the crucial Tamil vote.
Both candidates have made campaign trips to far north Tamil areas, which would have been unthinkable during the war days.
Rajapaksa, who speaks Tamil, even prayed at a Hindu temple. His government last week freed on bail a Sri Lankan Tamil journalist pending an appeal of his 20-year jail sentence on terrorism charges.
Fonseka, who is supported by the main opposition United National Party of former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, has largely avoided campaigning on the military victory so as not to alienate the Tamils. He has been speaking about alleged government corruption and its handling of the refugee issue.
This earned Fonseka the endorsement of the Tamil National Alliance, which has 22 seats in the 225-member Parliament.
However, Rajapaksa, who leads the ruling United People's Freedom Alliance Party, remains confident and has promised to reduce presidential powers if reelected. He has also been talking about ambitious development projects in the post-war period.
One of Fonseka's supporters was killed last week when gunmen opened fire on a bus carrying them, making it an election issue even though the government strongly condemned the shooting.
The opposition also has accused the Rajapaksa government of trying to create a rift among all communities in the country, including Tamils and Muslims.
Writing in The New York Times, Chris Patten, co-chairman of the International Crisis Group, said: "The current exchange of charges and counter-charges between retired Gen. Sarath Fonseka and President Mahinda Rajapaksa must be particularly confusing to those Sri Lankans who consider both to be war heroes rather than war criminals."
As for the Tamils, Patten wrote: "Now, put yourself in a Tamil's shoes, and decide whom to vote for in the presidential election: Choose either the head of the government that ordered the attacks against you and your family, or the head of the army that carried it all out," Patten wrote, warning if the Tamil issue is not addressed after the election, "Tamil humiliation and frustration could well lead to militancy again."
The outcome of the elections is also likely to have international ramifications.
India, Sri Lanka's immediate northern neighbor with historical cultural links, is concerned about China's growing influence in the strategic Indian Ocean country.
The United States and the West, whose criticisms of the refugee and other issues did not sit well with the Rajapaksa government, also need to safeguard their interests in that country. The Obama administration has said it will work with any government that comes to power.
