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KICKOFF: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati. TV: FOX, Thom Brennaman, Charles Davis, Chris Spielman, Holly Sonders. SERIES HISTORY: 30th meeting. Buffalo leads 15-14, including a streak of 10 straight wins over the Bengals before 2011. Cincinnati defeated the Bills 34-21 last season in Buffalo. Both Bengals Super Bowl runs in 1981 and 1988 included playoff wins over the Bills.
Buffalo Bills (4-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-5-1)
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GAMEDATE: 11/20/16
KEYS TO THE GAME:
The Bengals were a popular pick against the New York Giants on Monday because they were the more desperate team. Following a 21-20 loss that dropped them to 3-5-1, desperation has reached new heights for the Bengals, who will be playing at Paul Brown Stadium for the first time in almost a month.
It's a common theme each week, but the Bengals' offensive line must play better -- and this week it must do so against a Buffalo defense that leads the NFL in sacks. Rex Ryan's Bills will take some chances. If the Bengals can protect QB Andy Dalton, big plays could be available.
The Bills showed some real progress in the passing game in their 31-25 loss at Seattle as Tyrod Taylor attacked down the field against one of the NFL's best defenses. He'll need to continue doing that; but, in this game, the Bills would like to take advantage of a Bengals rush defense that has struggled all year. They rank 26th in yards per attempt and allowed the Giants -- the second-worst running team in the league -- to pile up 122 yards. The Bills are still second in the NFL at 155 rushing yards per game, LeSean McCoy's hamstring has healed and he's ready to go for the stretch run. One key, though, will be the middle of the line as C Eric Wood is out for the year; Ryan Groy is a big drop-off, so Bengals NT Domata Peko and DT Geno Atkins could create some problems.
The Bills have given up big plays in the passing game -- seven of 50 yards or more in the first nine games. WR A.J. Green and TE Tyler Eifert are going to be difficult matchups. CBs Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby have not held up well in man coverage and Green likely will have an advantage no matter which side he lines up on.
MATCHUPS TO WATCH:
--Bengals WR A.J. Green vs. Bills CBs Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby. Both corners have been inconsistent, not playing to the level they were at in 2015 when Rex Ryan said they were the best corner duo in the league. Darby may not start -- Corey White is getting reps this week -- but no matter which side Green goes to, he's going to be a handful for the Bills, who are also struggling at safety. If Gilmore, Darby or White can't hold up, Green could have a very big day.
--Bills RB LeSean McCoy vs. Bengals linebackers. The Bengals have not been very good against the run this season, ranking 25th in yards per attempt. The Bills, as always, must control the ball on the ground, and McCoy -- now with an extra week to rest his injured hamstring -- should be fully healthy and able to resume his Pro Bowl play. One problem the Bills will encounter, though, is that center Eric Wood is out for the year, so there will be a void in the middle of the league's second-ranked rushing game.
PLAYER SPOTLIGHT:
Bills C Ryan Groy. The third-year pro may get his first NFL start since his rookie season with the Bears in 2014. Starting center Eric Wood is out for the year with a broken leg suffered in Seattle on Nov. 7. Groy replaced him in that game, and he is in competition this week with Patrick Lewis -- who has been inactive for every game -- to be the starter. Groy played 74 snaps this year as a backup at center and both guard spots, and he's the front-runner to get the nod in Cincinnati.
INJURY REPORT:
Buffalo -- Out: DT Corbin Bryant (shoulder). Questionable: DT Marcell Dareus (groin), LB Jerry Hughes (hand), WR Justin Hunter (groin), WR Walter Powell (hip), WR Robert Woods (foot).
Cincinnati -- Doubtful: TE C.J. Uzomah (calf). Questionable: DE Wallace Gilberry (calf).
FAST FACTS:
Bills QB Tyrod Taylor has five TD passes and two rushing scores in his last four road games. He leads NFL QBs with 362 yards rushing. Since 2015, he is the only QB with 4,500-plus passing yards (4,804) and 900-plus rushing yards (930).
Bills RB LeSean McCoy rushed for 90 yards and a touchdown in the last meeting and has 100 yards from scrimmage in five of the last six games. Since 2010, he leads the NFL with 7,733 yards rushing.
Bengals WR A.J. Green needs 36 receiving yards to join Randy Moss as the only NFL players to reach 1,000 in each of their first six seasons. DT Geno Atkins had sack last week. Since 2010, his 47.5 sacks is most among NFL DTs.
PREDICTION: The Bengals are a physically talented team, especially on defense, but they are coming off a tough "MNF" loss at the New York Giants and the Bills had a bye week to heal after their loss in Seattle.
OUR PICK: Bills, 32-21.
