The Vegas Guy: Boxing very good to Vegas

LAS VEGAS, Sept. 17 (UPI) -- Last Saturday's thrilling fight between Oscar De La Hoya and Fernando Vargas was another bonanza for the Las Vegas sports books, even though -- as usual -- quite a few big bettors overloaded the action a couple of hours before the match.

The nervous bookies had a late surge of action on Vargas, but most of them chose not to change the line, which was around 5 to 2 in favor of De La Hoya. As it turned out, De La Hoya's 11th-round knockout ended up meaning even more money for the casinos.

It was kind of a replay of the Tyson-Lewis fight in June, when a surge of Tyson money came in right before the opening bell.

At any rate, it makes me wonder what gamblers are thinking when they load up on the underdog right before a highly publicized fight. Partly, I think, they're affected by television. HBO and Showtime will always do whatever they can to make the fighters seem dead-even in ability. George Foreman and Bob Costas, the pay-per-view commentators, were openly scoffing at the poll of boxing writers that had appeared in the Las Vegas Review-Journal that morning; 20 of 21 writers had picked De La Hoya, and they thought the match was closer than that.

It WAS closer than that, but all 20 of them could have picked it close. A poll doesn't really mean anything. But the other factor in the late surge of Vargas money, I think, was based on the kind of reverse psychology that gamblers use to trip themselves up.

Namely, they were thinking:

1. Oscar De La Hoya is such a popular guy that the odds on the fight (5 to 2 De La Hoya) were probably skewed by at least a point by sucker money.

2. HBO kept running that videotape from the January press conference in which Vargas got in De La Hoya's face and shoved him without provocation. That causes another half-point in I-hate-Vargas money to bet against.

3. De La Hoya is soft. He's a multimillionaire with a singing career who wears designer clothes and takes his bride -- Puerto Rican pop singer Millie Corretjer -- to training camp with him. Vargas, who does nothing but train, gets another quarter-point.

4. Vargas really does hate De La Hoya. Years of watching Mike Tyson have taught gamblers that the guy with the chip on his shoulder is usually the more dangerous fighter. Quarter-point for Vargas.

5. Vargas is a natural 154-pounder, but De La Hoya started his career at 130 and has moved up four weight classes. He's a skinny small-boned guy in there against a Mexican Schwarzenegger. Edge to Vargas.

I could go on and on, but this was one of those strange fights where all kinds of voodoo advice seemed to be falling out of the sky. Even without Don King involved, the hype was amazing.

The Mandalay Bay Casino, which has established itself lately as the major fight venue in the world, billed the match as "Bad Blood" and sold "Bad Blood" T-shirts and souvenirs in the lobby.

Nobody doubted that the bad blood existed, but what was strange is that no one could quite identify the real reasons that Vargas hates De La Hoya so much. Among the various theories:

1. When Vargas was a young unknown fighter, De La Hoya snubbed his request for an autograph.

2. They once dated the same woman.

3. When they were both training at Big Bear Lake in California, Vargas fell into a snowbank one day, and when De La Hoya jogged by, he laughed at him. (I'm not making these up.)

4. Vargas thinks De La Hoya is not a "real Mexican" because De La Hoya plays golf. (Ever heard of Lee Trevino?)

5. Vargas thinks De La Hoya turned his back on the people of Mexico (even though both guys are American citizens) by living a Hollywood lifestyle and pandering to the media. Vargas likes to portray himself as an authentic "street guy," which he is.

6. This is my favorite one, though. Vargas accused De La Hoya of being a bad father. But listen to the logic: Both fighters got married recently, and both fighters have two children out of wedlock. But Vargas got married to the woman who gave birth to his two children. The playboy De La Hoya got married to a woman who was not the mother of his children. Therefore, he's a putz.

At any rate, the fight gave us a chance to look at the role of real emotion in sports. George Foreman used the old bromide, "Whoever wants it more will win this fight." If this were true, featherweights could beat heavyweights. This is so obviously not true that it makes you wonder how he won his championship belt.

But you hear this all the time in sportscasting. This team is playing with emotion. That team is motivated. This guy got dissed, so he'll have extra incentive to win. It's almost like some kind of weird religious cult that has repeated the mantra so many times it's impossible not to believe in it.

And yet, in any sport that requires hand-eye coordination -- boxing being the ultimate in that respect -- extra adrenaline doesn't really help, and could actually harm, a performance. Even for less specialized sportsmen -- like, say, an offensive lineman -- adrenaline might help for ONE play, but it's also likely to sap your energy. The guy who's the most wound up is likely to be the same guy who fails to make the tiny adjustments and subtle changes to his body that make the difference between winning and losing.

In the case of De La Hoya-Vargas, wasn't this the old story of the younger guy who desperately wants the approval of the older guy, but when he doesn't get it, he turns into Kathy Bates in "Misery"? De La Hoya is more handsome, has more money, is beloved by the crowds, and boxing doesn't even seem to be that hard for him. Vargas has to scrap for everything, and basically had to beg De La Hoya to grant him the fight in the first place.

Old-fashioned jealous rage is good for committing murder during a domestic dispute, but it doesn't have much value in the ring.

There was a telling exchange last week when Vargas said "I would rather die than lose to De La Hoya."

Asked to respond, De La Hoya could have made some Mike Tyson comment, like, "I'll be happy to help him die." But he's too smart for that. He said, "That's silly. Nobody wants to die in the ring."

How are you gonna beat that guy? Vargas was a goner before he ever showed up at Mandalay Bay. If I were De La Hoya, I wouldn't grant him a rematch. Too much emotion. Who needs it?

MANDALAY BAY

The Vegas Strip

Theme: Asian Fantasy-Island Water-Park Fern Bar

Opened: 1999

Total investment: $950 million

Known for: The "beach," its 11-acre pool area; major international boxing events in the Mandalay Events Center

Marketing niche: Upscale Californians, Midwesterners, high rollers

Gambler's Intensity: Medium

Cocktail speed: Medium

Dealers: Chipper

Bosses: Remote

Tables: 132

Rare games: None.

Slots: 2,300

Rooms: 3,700

Surrounding area: The last hotel on the southern end of the Strip, near the airport, with tram connections to Luxor and Excalibur

Web site: mandalaybay.com

Overall rating: 87

Joe Bob's bankroll: Up $100 after De La Hoya's victory: total to date +$265

(E-mail Joe Bob Briggs, "The Vegas Guy," at [email protected] or visit Joe Bob's Web site at joebobbriggs.com. Snail-mail: P.O. Box 2002, Dallas, Texas 75221.)