HOUSTON, Dec. 19 (UPI) -- Recovery in oil prices following an OPEC agreement to trim production should help stimulate oil activity in shale plays in the United States, analysis finds.
Crude oil prices ended November around $47 per barrel, but have since recovered to the low $50s because of a decision by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to trim about what the group expects in oil demand growth from production starting in January.
Tom Ellacott, a corporate analyst for consultant group Wood Mackenzie, said oil prices are still low in relative terms and companies are struggling to adapt to the new era. A recovery in prices from below $30 per barrel in early 2016, however, means some reserve basins are more promising than others.
"The hot oil plays are U.S. tight oil, with the Permian basin to the fore, and Brazil pre-salt," he said in an emailed report.
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Tight oil refers to shale basins, while pre-salt means the oil is below a thick layer of salt on the ocean floor.
Energy companies working in U.S. shale have been more resilient to the low price of oil than expected and the Permian basin could see production grow by as much as 750,000 barrels per day next year if crude oil prices hold steady. An estimated 50 billion barrels of oil lies off Brazil's coast, a volume that's expected to put the Latin American country on par with some of the world's top oil producers.
Spending during the downturn moved sharply lower as companies cut payrolls and focused on core assets. Wood Mackenzie's report said that, so long as oil prices stay above $50 per barrel, investments in the United States alone could increase by as much as 25 percent. In total, however, the pressure remains with spending from some of the biggest oil and gas companies in the world on pace to drop 8 percent.
In two years, Wood Mackenzie says it expects the price of oil to be in the upper $70 range. For next year, the report found some of the volatility for companies moving through the downturn will evaporate.
"Overall 2017 will be a year of stability and opportunity for oil and gas companies in positions of financial strength," Ellacott said. "More players will look at opportunities to adapt and grow their portfolios."
