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Economic Outlook: Hail Mary

By ANTHONY HALL, United Press International
Anthony Hall
Anthony Hall

Financial rescue efforts in Europe are looking more desperate by the minute and whether that is a good thing or not remains to be seen.

Most prevalent recently is the concept of expanding the eurozone both in size and through stronger policies. This suits those who believe that the more financial firepower is thrown on the problem, the quicker Europe's debt crisis will go away.

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If recent rescue efforts were any indication of how Europe intends to fix its debt contagion, however, this is a very, very long shot -- the equivalent of a "Hail Mary" pass in the last minute of a losing football game.

Hail Mary is often defined as telling the quarterback to 1) heave the ball in the general direction of the end zone and 2) hope for the best.

Indeed, that is the only strategy Europe has tried so far.

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The most recent breakthrough in the rescue plan was an agreement that took months to assemble -- an agreement to more than double the size of the European Financial Stability Facility to $1.2 trillion. By the end of that week, or sooner, that plan looked inadequate, as Italy, Europe's third largest economy, was suddenly the focus of concern with a deficit 120 percent of its gross domestic product.

An increasingly larger rescue plan, however, seems to be the only choice. The international framework that set up the eurozone does not allow for a member country to be gently disconnected from the rest, but guidelines for growth are set in place. If Britain wants to join the eurozone, that can be done. Asking Greece to leave -- nobody wrote the rules for that.

Discussions for the eurozone are centered on how to re-write treaties to allow for the central commission to look at the spending plans of member states before the parliaments at each state has a chance to do so and adding a regional tax that would put more meat on the bones of international programs, including rescue efforts.

This more vigorous version of the eurozone will, in theory, include stronger sanctions for members who violate financial rules. It would also reorient the European Central Bank by encouraging it to purchase government bonds when the market needs extra support.

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That rescue plan looks increasingly like a plan to make Europe look more like the United States -- a federation of states with a centralized power looking after the union as a whole.

Europe, at this point, is balancing assumptions on sovereignty that began in the Middle Ages against a financial crisis, give or take a few months, that is 5 years old.

That's perfectly permissible; it just doesn't appear likely that eurozone members will be that quick to pass up their independence. That seems improbable at best.

In international markets Monday, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan added 1.56 percent while the Shanghai composite index gained 0.12 percent. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong added 1.97 percent while the Sensex in India gained 3.01 percent.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.85 percent.

In midday trading in Europe, the FTSE 100 index added 2.83 percent while the DAX 30 in Germany rose 4.26 percent. The CAC 40 in France surged 4.71 percent while the Stoxx Europe 600 gained 3.62 percent.

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