MADISON, Wis. -- Yuri Andropov's death will make little difference in the Soviet Union's domestic and foreign affairs, according to Henry Shapiro, retired Moscow bureau chief for United Press International.
The ruling Politburo probably has chosen a successor already, said Shapiro, whose years in Moscow spanned Stalin's era.
Shapiro, a Moscow resident for more than 35 years and now an author and lecturer at the University of Wisconsin, suggested President Reagan attend Andropov's funeral.
'It would require an act of great wisdom and courage for Reagan to do such a dramatic act,' he said. 'But it might help to change the dangerous climate now prevailing -- and coincidentally, it might be a great coup for Reagan during this election year.'
He said Andropov's death will not 'make much difference, if any. The last few months he has been inactive. He's been certainly invisible, although statements of policy were issued in his name.
'The country was run, as it always is, by the Politburo. Andropov, who was an apparently very able man, was not a dictator the way Stalin was. He was the so-called chairman of the board, which means he presided over the Politburo of now 15 members, who are the actual rulers of the country.'
Shapiro said he was reasonably sure the Politburo members have a successor in mind.
'The 15 members of the Politburo must have -- the last few weeks when it was apparent to them that Andropov was dying -- probably have already agreed on a successor,' he said.
Shapiro said the successor was likely to be someone who is both a Politburo member and secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party. He mentioned Mikhail Gorbachev, Grigory Romanov and Konstantin Chernenko.
'It will be business as usual as far as American-Soviet relations are concerned,' he said. 'The policy has been the collective policy of the Politburo. Secondly, as President Reagan said, it takes two to tango. A lot depends on what the United States does.'
From reading the Soviet press and letters from people in Russia, and visits to the country, Shapiro said, 'I know that the Russians have been terrified by President Reagan's rhetoric and policies.'
Shapiro went to the Soviet Union in 1933 and reported for United Press and United Press International from Moscow from 1937 to 1973 with only a few trips out of the country.
