WASHINGTON, May 20 (UPI) -- U.S. forecasters predict the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season will be an active one with up to 18 named storms and 10 hurricanes, six of them major hurricanes.
They base their prediction for the season, to begin June 1, on the continuing period of high activity that began in 1995 as a result of ocean and atmospheric conditions, warmer-than-normal Atlantic waters that lead to hurricane formation and strengthening and the La Nina pattern of cooler-than-normal sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, The (New Orleans) Times-Picayune reported Thursday.
A storm must have winds of at least 39 mph to be named, becomes a hurricane when its winds hit 74 mph and is termed a major hurricane, ranking between Categories 3 and 5, when winds reach at least 111 mph.
Federal officials, in announcing the predictions, could not say when, where or even if any of those storms might reach the United States.
"That's a function of time and place," said Jane Lubchenco, undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere, calling landfall predictions this early "next to impossible."
Forecasters do not expect a repeat of last season, which had 19 named storms, she said.
"Most tropical storms and all hurricanes last year, fortunately, avoided the United States coastline," she said. "We cannot count on having the same luck this year."
