WASHINGTON, Aug. 25 (UPI) -- An Iraqi referendum on its security pact with Washington affects not only the nature of the U.S. military engagement, but politics in Baghdad, analysts say.
Iraqi lawmakers adopted draft legislation Wednesday calling for a national referendum on the bilateral security agreement with Washington to coincide with national elections in January.
If Iraqi voters reject the security agreement, U.S. combat forces would be obligated to pull out of Iraq much earlier than the original 2011 deadline. Holding the referendum along with parliamentary elections also invites a great degree of politicization from Iraqi lawmakers, notes a review by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
On one hand, voters may adopt the measure given the increased level of violence that followed the June 30 withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from Iraqi cities. That would give U.S. and Iraqi security forces more flexibility with their military relationship.
If rejected, the accelerated timetable would leave U.S. trainers scrambling to get their Iraqi counterparts up to the task, an issue raised in the wake of the deadly Aug. 19 bombings in Baghdad.
Meanwhile, with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki hoping to secure a second term in office, the security referendum may become a key political issue as lawmakers grapple with the impact of a sustained U.S. engagement.
Nevertheless, both governments, the review notes, should examine a draft agreement to examine the need for a continued American presence to cover future needs regardless of the outcome of the vote.
