WASHINGTON, Aug. 13 (UPI) -- The Aug. 20 election in Afghanistan is a test not only for the U.S.-led counterinsurgency, but for the durability of the Taliban and al-Qaida, experts say.
The Taliban and al-Qaida have staged a comeback following the near-defeat in the initial salvos of the war in 2001. Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at The Brookings Institution, writes that now the challenge for the extremists is whether they can sustain the destabilization effort in a post-election environment overshadowed by a massive military campaign.
U.S. Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the top military commander in Afghanistan, acknowledged insurgents have the upper hand in the conflict. Taliban attacks passed 400 per week in May, up from around 50 per week in 2004.
Taliban leader Mullah Omar said he intends to disrupt the provincial and presidential election, threatening to assassinate any number of candidates. But apart from pockets in the south of the country, the Taliban have not been able to develop a national offensive against democratic reforms.
Meanwhile, Omar and his counterparts are preparing for post-election Afghanistan by staking claims that any victor is an agent of the Crusaders. Riedel notes the Taliban, however, are now more of an anti-American campaign than an attractive alternative.
"In short, the election is a test both for NATO and the Afghan government in their ability to pull off a credible election day and for the Taliban to upset it," he concludes. "The results are likely to be mixed and thus should be assessed carefully."
