WASHINGTON, March 18 (UPI) -- Now that President Bush has given Saddam Hussein and his inner circle 48 hours to leave Iraq and Saddam has declined the offer, the stage is set for a military confrontation.
If there is a ground war, the main thrust (right now, the only thrust unless the Turkish Parliament grants basing rights) would come from Kuwait. Leading the charge would be the Army's 3rd Infantry Division (Mechanized). The division is equipped with 203 Abrams tanks and 261 Bradley Fighting Vehicles. It would be supported by U.S. Marines and British Army Forces. The Marines have the equivalent of about two divisions supported by 120 Abrams tanks. The British have the equivalent of a division, with 116 Challenger (roughly equivalent to the Abrams in terms of protection and hitting power) tanks and 145 Warrior Infantry Fighting Vehicles. The 101st Airborne Division does not have all of its equipment yet, and won't for a week or two, so it probably wouldn't play a central role in the fighting if it broke out soon.
Right now, the 4th Infantry Division's equipment is on board ships off Turkey and most of its troops are still in Texas. Its designation notwithstanding, the 4th Infantry Division (Mechanized) is actually an armored division, with 247 Abrams tanks and 217 Bradleys. The division has the combat power to create an effective second front in the north. If a ground war is delayed by several weeks, it might be possible to land the division's equipment and transport it through Turkey to the Kurdish Autonomous Region in time to take part in the fighting.
The other heavy units that have been ordered to the Gulf are either still awaiting shipment or are so early in the transit process that they would not arrive in time to take part in a ground war.
If there is a ground war, and if it is successful, questions will still be raised over why the government deployed so few divisions to unseat Saddam Hussein. Though this deployment may lead to Saddam's overthrow, it is nevertheless a serious violation of the "Powell Doctrine" of overwhelming force that served us so well in Operation Desert Storm.
On entering Kuwait, the 3rd Infantry Division would first encounter the Iraqi III Corps. The corps' 11th Infantry Division is deployed along the border. For armor support, the division has 17-25 decrepit T-55 tanks and 50 or so equally decrepit 122-mm towed artillery pieces. Unarmored divisions like the 11th are more sound than they were during the Gulf War. On Feb. 24, 1991, there were 40 regular army truck-borne or foot-propelled infantry divisions in the Iraqi order of battle. Now there are 11. With 29 fewer light divisions to stock, Iraq is no longer forced to rely so heavily on old men and boys to fill them. More important, it no longer has to rely on politically unreliable soldiers to fill them. While 75 percent of Iraq's population was Shi'ite or Kurdish, almost 90 percent of the soldiers on the Saddam Line in the Gulf War came from these ethnic groups, which helps explain their lack of fighting spirit. Kurds are now exempt from military service, as are most Shi'ites. Still, these divisions are basically worthless. After the destruction of the handful of dug-in tanks backstopping the front line and an intense artillery barrage, there would almost certainly be a mass surrender.
Backing the 11th Infantry Division is the 51st Mechanized Division. The 51st Mechanized has around 140 tanks and 180 armored personnel carriers. Though many analysts theorize that only Republican Guard units would fight, most if not all of the regular army's heavy units would probably fight until they were destroyed. It is a little known fact that on the second day of Desert Storm's ground war, while analysts were chuckling about the previous day's mass surrenders, the Marines were savagely counterattacked by elements of two regular army heavy divisions. These attacks were essentially armored versions of the Charge of the Light Brigade and were broken by Marine tanks, anti-tank missile launchers, attack helicopters and Harrier jets. Said one Marine: "They had guts. If they hadn't been trying to kill me, I might have stood on my tank and cheered for them." Iraq's heavy units will probably have lost around 10 percent of their armor to air attack by the time they are encountered by coalition ground forces, but they will fight.
Guarding Basra would be the 6th Armored Division, which has around 180 tanks and 150 BMP Infantry Fighting Vehicles. These BMPs are thinly armored firetraps that fire a weak, inaccurate 73-mm main-gun round and mount an equally inaccurate anti-tank missile that cannot penetrate American or British main battle tanks. However, they are better than the armored personnel carriers (which only have heavy machine-guns) that the infantry of most regular army heavy divisions are equipped with. The type of infantry vehicle a heavy division is equipped with is an important clue to the capabilities of that division. BMPs only go to the better, more reliable units. So, if you see a unit equipped with BMPs it's a good bet that the unit's officers and men will be a cut above their counterparts in other heavy units and will be more likely to fight well and with some dedication.
It should be added that there have been reports that the III Corps' two heavy units have been ordered to positions closer to Baghdad. The accuracy of the reports is uncertain, however. On one hand, it is difficult to believe that Saddam Hussein would essentially abandon Basra. On the other, he has made strange military moves before.
Halfway between the Kuwaiti border and Baghdad sits the Iraqi IV Corps, which consists of two virtually worthless divisions (the 14th Infantry and the 18th Infantry) and one of Iraq's better tank divisions, the 10th Armored. Like the 6th Armored Division to the south, the division's infantry units are equipped with BMPs. Between the IV Corps and Baghdad's outer ring of defenses is the Republican Guard's Baghdad Motorized (truck mounted) Division. With only a battalion of tanks and a battalion of BMPs, it doesn't have the combat power to be any more than a speed bump to an advancing American heavy unit. Like the Republican Guard's other two motorized divisions, the Baghdad Division is basically an armed rabble. The standard of manpower and leadership is very poor, and it would probably disintegrate on contact.
The outer defenses of Baghdad are manned by four Republican Guard Divisions and at least two commando brigades. Commando brigades are used to defend areas of tactical importance. These units fought doggedly in the Gulf War and can be expected to do so again if called upon. To the northwest of the city is the Hammurabi Armored Division, supported by the 26th Commando Brigade. To the northeast is the Nidah Armored Division. To the southeast is the Medina Armored Division. These three armored divisions have the best tanks and infantry fighting vehicles available to the Iraqi Army. To the southwest is the Nebuchadnezzar Motorized Division, which, like the Baghdad division, is too light to put up much resistance. Like the Baghdad Division, it would probably disintegrate on contact. Guarding the southern edge of the city is the 3rd Commando Brigade.
Baghdad itself would be defended by the division-sized Special Republican Guard. The possibility of house-to-house fighting in Baghdad is why a northern front is so important. Hope is an important factor in defense. If, at the time a southern thrust reached the outskirts of Baghdad, half of the Iraqi Army was still intact to the north, one could reasonably expect fierce resistance from the Special Republican Guard. If, on the other hand, the men of the SRG looked to the north, saw the tanks of the 4th Infantry Division and realized that the entire Iraqi Army in the field had been destroyed, they would be more likely to see the handwriting on the wall and quit.
The Iraqi Army has three corps in the north, along the border of the Kurdish Autonomous Region. In the northern sector, the V Corps defends Mosul. The corps is made up of three poor light divisions (4th Infantry, 7th Infantry, 16th Infantry) and the 1st Mechanized Division, probably the least steady Regular Army heavy unit. It is also supported by the Republican Guard's Adnan Mechanized Division with its 140 tanks and 180 BMPs. In the center, defending Kikuk, is the I Corps. It has a fairly solid heavy unit, the 5th Mechanized Division. However, it also has three virtually worthless infantry divisions, the 2nd, 8th and 38th. In fact, the 38th Infantry Division is considered by some analysts to be the worst division in the Iraqi Army. Those three divisions are supported by one of the Republican Guard's shaky motorized divisions, the Abed Division. The southern flank is held by the II Corps. That corps has two weak infantry divisions (the 15th and 34th) and a well-regarded armored division. About half of the 3rd Armored Division's infantry units are equipped with BMPs.
Even if the 4th Infantry Division were unable to establish a northern front, these three corps would be unlikely to move south to intervene in fighting around Baghdad. The two Republican Guard divisions might move south, though that would be dangerous once bombing started, but the V, I and II corps lack the transport to move.
As to reserves, Iraq doesn't have any to speak of. It has various "People's Militia" units, which are basically a joke. If they were to go into action against American or British forces, they would be slaughtered. However, these units are made up of older men who have had their fill of war against Iranians, Americans, or both, so they probably wouldn't go into action. In the event of an invasion, most will probably find that they have pressing business elsewhere.
These are the lineups. Now, all that remains is for the fighting to commence and for events to take their course.
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(Thomas Houlahan is the director of the Military Assessment Program of the William R. Nelson Institute at James Madison University).
