WASHINGTON, March 5 (UPI) -- The secession of the province of Quebec would have a negative impact not only on Canada's geopolitical and economic future, but also on the future success of culturally diverse nations around the world, according to a recent book by Canada scholar and analyst Charles Doran.
"The task of governing large states composed of multi-national communities is really the political challenge for the 21st century," Doran -- the director of the Center of Canadian Studies at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, D.C. -- told United Press International. "That issue is obviously enough with regard to the Third World. What is intriguing is that at the beginning of the 21st Century, we find the advanced industrial democracies facing the problem of separatism along cultural lines."
In his book "Why Canadian Unity Matters and Why Americans Care: Democratic Pluralism at Risk," Doran details the traditional economic and geopolitical arguments against the independence of Quebec, and goes beyond the often-discussed consequences of the French-Canadian secessionist movement for the United States and its NAFTA trading partners.
"What I try to show is that Quebecers may feel in their hearts that independence is a good thing, but I think they need to recognize the tradeoffs," said Doran. "A united Canada is certainly in the best interest of its states with regard to trade, investment and its capacity to have a vested interest in world affairs."
He believes, however, that there are other important ideals at stake, especially democratic pluralism. If Quebec secedes -- as it came perilously close to doing under a public referendum in 1995, when secessionists fell just short of the majority of vote needed to break away -- it would represent a failure of that ideal and a negative example for similar nations the world over.
In the book, Doran details the independence movement and the efforts of the Quebecois to keep their historically French-based culture alive in the face of the encroaching English-speaking majority culture of Canada.
The French-Canadian effort is not unique in a world filled with similar separatist movements in industrial and developing nations of all sizes. The list includes not only the long-time efforts of the Basques to create a free state in Spain, but also the historically strong Scottish and Welsh nationalist tendencies which have come to light in recent years as political movements in Great Britain.
Doran says that secession, or issues related to it, is the No. 1 cause for state collapse in the world. Cultural issues and linguistic differences are also typically associated with those secessionist efforts, as in Quebec.
"The problem is that when you have a massive breakdown of democratic pluralism in places (like the United States or Canada) where the politics, economics, wealth and history have been a positive reinforcement for the world, there are likely to be negative consequences," said Doran. "The United States and Canada are not the only bastions of democracy, but they are the models for democratic pluralism. The process has been very slow, with slippage and counter currents, but it has been real since the middle of the last century."
Doran said that both countries have large communities that are quite different both culturally and religiously from the majority population, but they see themselves as part of a larger federation and coexist in comparative harmony. He said that such multi-ethnic and cultural harmony is a noble end in, and of, itself.
But at a SAIS-sponsored forum last week, Brookings Institution senior fellow Kent Weaver argued that even if Quebec leaves the union, Canada's effective handling of dominant dual populations through its history could actually serve as an example for countries dealing with nationalist and secessionist movements.
"Canada already provides an example of how a country can manage a broad population with almost no violence," said Weaver. "If Quebec does secede it will almost certainly be with little violence and under the rule of law."
Nevertheless, Doran said that Canada's successes work as a positive influence for a country like India, that has at least 100 separate groups with cultural and linguistic differences attempting to live under a single democratic umbrella. If Canada failed to hold onto Quebec, it would, he said, give ideas to those seeking to end such experiments in other nations.
Doran also noted that new pressures related to ethic diversity are developing in many countries. Differing birthrates among various sub-populations and increased immigration are changing regions and countries once seen as culturally monolithic into culturally diverse areas.
Sidney Weintraub, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told UPI that while he agreed with Doran that Canada would be seriously weakened if Quebec secedes, Doran's arguments of dire consequences worldwide for democratic pluralism are a reach.
"I think that it (Doran's main thesis) is overstated," said Weintraub. "It would have an impact but that is a debating point more than a reality. My deeper concern really has to do with what happens to the U.S. and Canadian relationship in light of what could take place in Canada."
Weintraub said that by dividing the country into two, secession would make it difficult to hold U.S.-Canada union together. This situation, he said, could lead to provinces like Alberta -- which he said was already economically oriented toward the United States and distrustful of the Canadian national government -- to look toward the United States for help.
This, in turn, could create resentment on the part of Canadians, said Weintraub. He added that the potential for such resentment is the reason the U.S. government has been careful to not insert itself into the Quebec secession issue despite its concerns.
In response to the idea that his ideas are overstated or too philosophical, Doran said: "(This) is a philosophical question, but by no means solely a philosophical one. I cannot imagine of a more central 21st Century question regarding how a democracy operates, than the issue of democratic pluralism."
