Oakland Raiders vs. Buffalo Bills: Prediction, preview, pick to win

OAKLAND RAIDERS (3-4) AT BUFFALO BILLS (4-2)

KICKOFF: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, New Era Field. TV: CBS, Andrew Catalon, James Lofton.

SERIES HISTORY: 39th regular-season meeting. Raiders lead series, 21-17. The Raiders have had the Bills' number the last few years with a pair of victories, both in Oakland, and both December losses ruined Buffalo's chances of earning a playoff berth. The Bills won the last game played at New Era Field, 38-35 in 2011.

KEYS TO THE GAME: Given that the Bills are seventh in run defense, the Raiders will look to control and score through the air -- especially with Marshawn Lynch suspended. Derek Carr passed for 417 yards and three touchdowns in a comeback win over Kansas City last weekend.

The Bills have to find a way to get pressure on Carr; because, if he can stand and go through his progression, it will be a long day for the Bills. Starting DBs Jordan Poyer and E.J. Gaines may miss the game, and in their places would be inexperienced FS Trae Elson and shaky veteran CB Shareece Wright, who was abused last week when Gaines went out of the game.

The Raiders won't have Lynch, so the Bills will have to be prepared to see many balls in the air as Carr threw 52 times last week for 417 yards against Kansas City, most of the game played without Lynch.

Defensively, the Raiders will concentrate their efforts on keeping LeSean McCoy under four yards per carry (he's a 3.4) and hope force Tyrod Taylor to win passing the ball. Taylor has remained solid and relatively error-free but not likely to hold up in a shootout situation with Carr.

The Bills did a nice job passing the ball against a weak Tampa Bay defense last week. Tyrod Taylor's 268 yards were his second-highest total ever in a Bills victory (he's only 2-6 when topping 250 yards). The contributions came from several sources, most notably new WR Deonte Thompson, who made the biggest offensive play of the game with a 44-yard catch in the fourth quarter.

The Raiders have not played well in pass defense (they're the only team that doesn't have a pick), and Taylor likely will look to expand on his performance last week, especially with WR Jordan Matthews making more progress playing with his injured thumb. Also, look for the Bills to continue to be diverse in their run package, because that kept the Bucs off balance.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

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Raiders LT Donald Penn vs. Bills RE Jerry Hughes. Hughes leads the Bills with three sacks and has been an underrated performer, with 34 sacks since the start of the 2012 season. At 6-foot-2 and 254 pounds, he gives away more than 50 pounds to Penn, who is coming off one of his best games this season against Kansas City. Penn will look to get his body on Hughes, who will counter with quickness and tenacity in hopes of getting pressure on Carr.

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Bills RT Jordan Mills vs. Raiders DE Khalil Mack. The Bills are going to have a tough time with Mack, but that's nothing new when it comes to the All-Pro who played college ball 15 minutes from New Era Field at the University at Buffalo. Mack has 34.5 sacks since coming into the league in 2014. The Bills rank 31st in the NFL in sacks allowed per pass attempt, so the Bills need to handle Mack, probably with at least two blockers.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Bills WR Deonte Thompson. He was perplexed that the Bears cut him last week because he had 11 catches for 125 yards and thought he was playing well. The Bills leaped at the opportunity to pick him up and fill a void in their weak and depleted wide receiving corps, and Thompson delivered immediately. He caught four passes for 107 yards, including a 44-yarder in the fourth quarter that set up the tying touchdown. He also had catches of 23 and 27 yards, the type of production the Bills have sorely lacked from their wideouts all season. He has a good chance to supplant struggling rookie WR Zay Jones as a starter this week.

FAST FACTS: Raiders QB Derek Carr passed for 417 yards and three TDs, with no interceptions, last week. He is one of three QBs (Tom Brady and Drew Brees) with at least two games of 400 yards and three TDs since 2016. In the past two meetings, he has four TD passes and no interceptions. He has 14 TDs and three interceptions in the past eight games on the road. ... RB DeAndre Washington had a rushing TD and 31 yards on nine carries last week. ... DE Khalil Mack has three sacks in the past two games on the road. He had a sack, forced fumble and a fumble recovery in the last meeting. The former University of Buffalo star aims for his third meeting in a row with a sack. ... Bills QB Tyrod Taylor passed for 268 yards and a TD and rushed for 53 yards last week. He had a rushing TD in the last meeting. In the past seven games at home, he has passed for 12 TDs and two interceptions and rushed for 253 yards and a TD. ... RB LeSean McCoy had 122 scrimmage yards (91 rushing) with two rushing TDs in Week 7. He has 17 multi-TD games since 2010, the most among active players. He has 90-plus scrimmage yards in 13 of his past games 14 at home. He had 191 scrimmage yards (130 rushing) in the last meeting. He has 271 scrimmage yards (135.5 per game) with a TD catch in the past two meetings. ... LB Preston Brown has 10-plus tackles in three of the past four games.

PREDICTION: The Raiders haven't won in Buffalo since 2002; and, although they came up with a huge win last week to revive their season, this doesn't look like a great spot for them. The Bills are finding some traction offensively, and they'll use that offense to set up a Stephen Hauschka game-winner as time expires.

OUR PICK: Bills, 27-24.

--Bucky Dent