Detroit Lions vs New York Giants: prediction, preview, pick to win

KICKOFF: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, MetLife Stadium. TV: FOX, Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews.

SERIES HISTORY: 43rd regular-season meeting. Lions lead series, 21-20-1. The Giants have won three out of the last five meetings dating back to 2004, the start of the Eli Manning era, but are 0-2 in regular-season games played in East Rutherford. In their three wins (2007, 2010 and 2013), the Giants have held the Lions to 20 points or less.

KEYS TO THE GAME:

Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford plans to play through the injury to the middle finger on his throwing hand suffered in last week's win over the Bears. To do so, he will wear a glove to protect the digit.

The Giants will try to take advantage of that development, especially after Stafford was less than sharp after suffering the injury.

The key battles are up front with the Giants' pass rush. The Lions' offensive line has allowed 30 sacks this year (12th most in the NFL), so look for the Giants to keep the heat on Stafford.

Struggles by Giants QB Eli Manning and the offensive line last week still echo for concerned fans. The line was confused whenever the Cowboys ran a twist, a tactic that often got a rusher free. Meanwhile, Manning continues to take that gunslinger approach where he is not afraid to force balls into tight windows in the hopes of making a play.

Manning once again said this week that he has to play better and make better decisions with the ball. It's time for him to stop talking about it and start doing it against this very good Lions defense.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

--Giants WR Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Lions CB Darius Slay. Slay is one of those rare cornerbacks who is just as effective outside as he is in the slot. The Lions typically have Slay follow the opponent's top receiver, so expect him to be matched against Beckham this week. Last week, Beckham, who was dealing with an injured thumb, dropped two passes. Slay has 13 passes defensed and has a knack for creating deflections that are ripe for interceptions, so Beckham will need to make sure he catches any balls cleanly.

--Giants DE Olivier Vernon vs. Lions LT Taylor Decker. With Jason Pierre-Paul out, Vernon has quietly taken control of that defensive line. Although his string of five consecutive games with at least one sack was snapped last week against Tyron Smith, this week he'll get a more favorable matchup in Decker, who leads the Lions with eight penalties, five for holding. Vernon probably won't get every call to go his way, but there's little doubt that the officials will keep a close eye on Decker, whose three other penalties have been false starts.

SUNDAY TEAM REPORT:

DETROIT LIONS

--Out: C Travis Swanson (concussion)

--Doubtful: RB Theo Riddick (wrist)

--Questionable: DE Ezekiel Ansah (shoulder), TE Eric Ebron (knee), LB DeAndre Levy (knee), CB Darius Slay (hamstring), RB Zach Zenner (concussion)

NEW YORK GIANTS

--Out: DE Jason Pierre-Paul (core muscle)

--Questionable: S Nat Berhe (concussion), LB Keenan Robinson (shoulder), RB Shane Vereen (concussion)

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT:

Giants LG Justin Pugh. Pugh has missed five games with a left knee injury, but he said he finally feels 100 percent and plans to play this week. Pugh, sporting a brace on the knee, said he will probably wear it for the rest of the season. He was listed as limited in Wednesday's practice.

FAST FACTS:

Lions QB Matthew Stafford has 2,290 yards passing with 17 TDs, 4 INTs in the past eight road games.

Detroit WR Anquan Boldin caught eight passes for 107 yards and a TD in the last meeting (2015 when he was with San Francisco). Since entering the NFL in 2003, Boldin ranks third with 13,676 yards receiving.

Giants QB Eli Manning is averaging 291.1 yards passing in his last seven home games.

Giants WR Sterling Shepard has a TD catch in four of the last five games and ranks third among NFL rookies in receptions (51) and receiving yards (536) and is tied for second with six TD catches.

Giants S Landon Collins is the only player in the NFL with at least three sacks and five interceptions. He leads NFL safeties with 100 tackles.

PREDICTION:

This is not an easy pick. Not only do they have the same record, but they have won eight games apiece by seven points or fewer, tied for the most in the NFL. Among teams with winning records, they have the smallest winning margins -- 4.9 for the Giants and 5.0 for the Lions.

OUR PICK: Lions, by .1 point. What, that doesn't work? OK, Lions, 21-20.

--Frank Cooney