WASHINGTON, Aug. 9 (UPI) -- The National Atmospheric and Oceanographic Administration says it is raising its hurricane season predictions despite expected El Nino conditions.
After a busy start with six named storms to date, the 2012 season may have a busy second half, an updated hurricane season outlook issued Thursday by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said.
While the updated outlook still indicates a 50 percent chance of a near-normal hurricane season, it increases the chance of an above-normal season to 35 percent and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent from the initial outlook issued in May.
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the June 1 to Nov. 30 season, NOAA's updated outlook projects a total of 12 to 17 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including 5 to 8 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which 2 to 3 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph).
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Those numbers include the activity to date of tropical storms Alberto, Beryl, Debbie, Florence and hurricanes Chris and Ernesto.
"We are increasing the likelihood of an above-normal season because storm-conducive wind patterns and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures are now in place in the Atlantic," Gerry Bell, hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center said.
A mitigating El Nino condition will likely develop in August or September, NOAA forecasters said.
"El Nino is a competing factor, because it strengthens the vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, which suppresses storm development," Bell said. "However, we don't expect El Nino's influence until later in the season."
