LIVERMORE, Calif., Dec. 5 (UPI) -- U.S. scientists say rising California temperatures will eventually reduce the amounts of oranges, avocados and other produce available in grocery stores.
The study by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory indicated production losses in some of California's most popular crops -- including walnuts, avocados, wine and table grapes and almonds -- could be as high as 40 percent by midcentury.
Using more than 20 climate models, the authors assessed the response of the crops to projected changes in temperature -- an increase of 2 degrees to 4 degrees Celsius -- and precipitation.
"Climate change should be an important factor in selecting perennial varieties and deciding whether and where they should be planted in California," said David Lobell, the lead author of the paper who collaborated with scientists at the Carnegie Institution, Stanford University and the University of California-Merced. "This study indicates warmer temperatures will tend to reduce yields of these crops in their current locations."
Most yield declines are expected for almonds, table grapes, oranges, walnuts and avocados, with some crops yielding 40 percent less than current harvests.
The research is detailed in the current issue of the journal Agricultural and Forest Meteorology.
