Analysis: Movie sequels hit the skids

LOS ANGELES, July 15 (UPI) -- Hollywood is once again struggling to find the fine line between cashing in on sequels and going to the well once too often.

Going into the summer box-office season, the movie business was letting a lot of its capital ride on follow-ups to past winners. The major releases of the summer so far have been sequels -- including "X2: X-Men United," "The Matrix Reloaded," "2 Fast 2 Furious," "Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle" and "Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines."

The current box-office champ -- "Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl" -- is not wholly original, but a spinoff from a hit ride at Disneyland.

There's no mystery surrounding studio decisions to milk a good thing. Generally, two rules of thumb drive such decisions.

One is embodied by the old adage that in Hollywood everybody wants to be first to go second. Genuinely original, inventive ideas are not that hard to come by -- getting them actually made and distributed, that's the toughest part.

The second primary motivation for making sequels is that they offer the promise of a preconditioned market -- a built-in constituency that can be drawn to theaters based on something like brand loyalty. Of course, it doesn't always work out that way.

Think "Speed 2: Cruise Control." The 1997 sequel to the 1994 Keanu Reeves-Sandra Bullock action hit bombed with critics and paying customers alike.

This summer has yet to offer a box-office failure as spectacularly futile as "Speed 2," but "Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle" doesn't miss by much. In fact, with the possible exception of "X2: X-Men United," none of the major releases has exceeded marketplace expectations and most have fallen short.

According to a report in the Los Angeles Times, corporate Hollywood has had "a palpable shift in attitude" about sequels. Just as the movie business produced and marketed the current proliferation of sequels based on the marketplace performance of the originals, so will future production slates reflect the disappointing sales of this year's model.

"If there was any hubris or arrogance to the industry's approach, it's that we got accustomed to believing 'Build it and they'll come,'" said Marc Shmuger, vice chairman of Universal Pictures.

This summer's sequels have, for the most part, managed strong enough opening weekends. But few have demonstrated the staying power of "Finding Nemo."

The Disney-Pixar computer animated feature has become the second-biggest animated hit in U.S. box-office history and will finish its run in the all-time Top 15 with more than $300 million. Can a sequel be far behind?

"T3" -- which cost a reported $175 million to produce and another $50 million to market -- has earned a little more than $110.5 million. Almost three-fourths of its total came in during its opening weekend, the long Fourth of July holiday weekend, but ticket sales are falling fast since then.

"Legally Blonde 2: Red, White & Blonde," "Rugrats Go Wild" and "2 Fast 2 Furious" -- among other titles -- had similar experiences, with ticket sales falling rapidly after strong opening weekends. This may be a case of Hollywood getting what it wished for, given the movie industry's tendency in recent years to gear marketing campaigns to the biggest possible opening weekend and hope for the best after that.

"Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle" may look like a dud, considering that its domestic gross is unlikely to cover the cost of production and marketing, but Amy Pascal, chairman of Columbia Pictures, told the Times that foreign ticket sales might turn out to be strong enough to justify a third "Angels" picture.

"It's too early to tell," she said. "I'm watching closely and hoping it will make sense."

If it's any consolation to the studios, sequels are not the only summer movies falling short of marketplace expectations. "Hulk" opened strong, but analysts saw enough weakness in its performance that Marvel Comics stock prices dropped on the Monday after the movie opened.

It's tempting to blame the producers and marketers for a collective failure to connect with the moviegoing public, but it's also true that public taste is a moving target. Pascal suggested that the experience of the summer of '03 will be reflected in future movie slates that rely less on the familiar and more on the fresh.

"You can't rely on formula," she said. "You have to look at what's working and what's working is stuff that's fresh."

There is, of course, no guarantee that what's working now will still work next summer or the summer after that. Meantime, get ready for the next Harry Potter movie, the third "Lord of the Rings" installment, "Shrek 2" and "Spider-Man 2" -- all coming soon to a theater near you.