System predicts worldwide swine flu spread

TORONTO, June 30 (UPI) -- A researcher in Toronto, who designed a model to evaluate the world's air traffic patterns, said he accurately predicted how the H1N1 virus spread worldwide.

Dr. Kamran Khan of St. Michael's Hospital and colleagues analyzed the flight itineraries of the more than 2.3 million passengers departing Mexico on commercial flights during the months of March and April to predict the spread of H1N1.

The findings show the international destinations of air travelers leaving Mexico were strongly associated with confirmed importations of the H1N1 virus around the world.

"The relationship between air travel and the spread of H1N1 is intuitive," Khan said in a statement. "However, for the first time, we can quickly integrate information about worldwide air traffic patterns with information about global infectious disease threats. What this means is that cities and countries around the world can now respond to news of a threat earlier and more intelligently than ever before."

Known as The BIO.DIASPORA Project, the system was created in response to the Toronto SARS crisis in 2003 to better understand the global airline transportation network and its relationship to the spread of emerging infectious diseases.

The findings were published in the New England Journal of Medicine.