RIO DE JANEIRO, Aug. 25 (UPI) -- Brazil's plans for future development of its enormous oil fields are keeping foreign firms guessing, with little hint if they will be in or out of the game or ever have a slice of the oily cake.
There are compelling reasons for this uncertainty. Brazil, unlike other major producers of oil outside Europe and North America, has developed a vast local reserve of its own expertise, acquired through many years of exploration and development of oil fields worldwide.
"We can't blame Brazil if they are thinking: we have all the knowhow, what can the foreigners contribute?" Manouchehr Takin, senior petroleum analyst with the London Center for Global Energy Studies, told United Press International in an interview.
Takin said the expertise gathered over the years in Petrobras, Brazil's largest company, means that Brazil can afford to produce oil and still not lose out if the oil price drops to $20 a barrel.
Takin is a specialist in oil production capacity and costs and has a Ph.D. in geophysics from the University of Cambridge, England.
On Aug. 20 Petrobras announced a new oil discovery in carbonate reservoirs in the Campos Basin, offshore of Rio de Janeiro, with about 280 million barrels of recoverable light oil. Current estimates put Brazil's oil reserves at tens of billions of barrels, with the biggest discoveries of the century confirmed in November 2007.
Petrobras has unveiled plans to rush through development of its production capacity with an investment of more than $170 billion in the next five years. Industry experts estimate if Brazil implements the announced plans, it may start producing by 2020 up to 5.7 million barrels of oil and gas -- more than half the current output of Saudi Arabia.
Not surprisingly, the world's oil players want a part of it. Petrobras has wavered between declaring it is self-sufficient enough to finance the whole development and inviting investors, even on its Web site.
Takin said Brazil's reluctance to share the booty with foreign companies is understandable. "It is so huge, and the profit implications so obvious, they are hesitant."
Much of the new oil lies in deep seabed hundreds of miles away from the shore, and production and export may involve facilities completely detached from the mainland, Takin said.
"This is where they are good at it themselves and don't need anyone else from elsewhere to do it for them," Takin said. "The prize is just so colossal, it's a huge thing, why should they want to share it?" However, he added, having adequate financing at the right time would speed up the process of development and Brazil might devise a plan to do it in a way that would safeguard its national interests.
Takin said Brazil might find synergies with China, a courtship that has gone on for some time, and use Chinese cash for some of its finance needs.
An entirely new company other than Petrobras to handle production and export, mainly to protect Petrobras against a foreign shareholding, is also an option, he said. Petrobras calls itself the 15th-largest oil company in the world. Profit surged from $1.373 billion in 1997 to more than $13 billion in 2007, the company says.
Petrobras exploration and development plans have rekindled environmental concerns over risks to natural habitats. The prospect of Brazil emerging as a major oil producer and exporter have also raised fears its diversifying economy may suffer.
"It's understandable if people worry about Brazil falling prey to the curse of oil, the Dutch disease," Takin said. "But Brazil's economy is already far advanced toward diversification and if they handle their new wealth with care they'll do well."
