WASHINGTON, Jan. 23 (UPI) -- Under the late Turkmen "President for Life" Saparmurat Niyazov, self-styled "Turkmenbashi" ("father of the Turkmen"), much was made of the quixotic and megalomaniacal way he ran his desert fiefdom on the eastern shore of the Caspian.
Beyond the cult of personality trappings that would give Kim Jong Il pause and provide endless fodder for the Western press was the fact every government from Beijing to Washington fixated upon: the country's vast natural gas reserves.
Since Niyazov's sudden death in December 2006, energy executives from around the world have been jetting into dusty Ashgabat to curry favor with his successor, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, tripping over one another in hopes of an opportunity to develop the country's largely untapped hydrocarbon wealth.
Three recent events have stoked Western interest in the country's reserves. First, the Russian-Georgian armed clash last August heightened Western fears that Russia would move in a more assertive manner to dominate the energy resources of the former Soviet Caspian states of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. The second was the dispute earlier this month between Russia and Ukraine over natural gas exports, which provided direct proof to Western energy hawks that the Kremlin's actions could threaten Western natural gas imports.
In between these two disputes, however, what really got Western energy firms slathering about Turkmenistan's potential was the release on Oct. 14 of an independent audit by respected British firm Gaffney, Cline & Associates of Turkmenistan's South Iolotan-Osman gas field. The commissioning and release of the audit were in stark contrast to the secretive Niyazov years. While Turkmenbashi had often boasted of the country's massive reserves, placing them at up to 24 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, his claims often were taken as mere braggadocio, with BP calculating them at slightly more than 1/10th that amount.
The GCA audit silenced the skeptics, as it estimated South Iolotan-Osman's reserves alone to be between 4 tcm and 14 tcm of gas, which makes South Iolotan-Osman the world's fifth- or fourth-largest field, whose development eventually would allow Turkmenistan to double its exports from their current level of around 52 billion cubic meters. While Russia currently accounts for more than 80 percent of Turkmenistan's exports, Western governments and firms are hopeful they will be able to participate in the expansion of the country's production.
At least one leader had earlier drawn the correct conclusions about pipeline security, even before the Russian-Georgian confrontation, which completely shut in Azeri exports for nearly three weeks -- Berdimuhamedov. Realizing that providing security for his nation's future gas exports was a task far beyond the capabilities of his country's glorious but modest armed forces, nearly a year before the Caucasian conflict, on Sept. 26, 2007, Berdimuhamedov during his address "Turkmenistan is open to the world today," to the 62nd session of the U.N. General Assembly, informed the audience: "Turkmenistan defines its international energy strategy aimed at developing a multiple pipelines system to bring Turkmen energy resources to the international markets on a stable and long-term basis. This strategy is not dependent on either political circumstances or any kind of ideological biases. Our stand on this matter is a stand of principle and full transparency: We support implementation of economically justified pipeline projects that would guarantee security." The Georgian-Russian conflict simply intensified Turkmen diplomats' efforts.
On Oct. 28, 2008, Turkmenistan's Permanent Representative to the United Nations Aksoltan Ataeva introduced document A/C.2/63/L.3/ Rev.1/Add.1, which contained a "draft resolution on the reliable and stable transit of energy and its role in ensuring sustainable development in international cooperation" as agenda item 49 of the Second Committee (Economic and Financial) in the 63rd session of the U.N. General Assembly. On Dec. 23, all 192 nations in the General Assembly unanimously passed the "Reliable and stable transit of energy and its role in ensuring sustainable development and international cooperation" resolution.
On Jan. 22, during discussions with Berdimuhamedov in Ashgabat, Alexei Tikhomirov, senior economic officer for the U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, told him, "This initiative has found the widest support among the U.N. member states. Many states also expressed readiness for joint work in such a strategic sphere as energy security."
According to a U.N. news release, "The Assembly would welcome international cooperation in developing transportation systems and pipelines, recognize the need for extensive international cooperation to ensure reliable transportation of energy to international markets through pipelines and transport systems, and welcome Turkmenistan's initiative to hold, in 2009, a high-level international conference to discuss the issue."
It was an extraordinary diplomatic accomplishment; on Jan. 15 Berdimuhamedov told his Cabinet officials, "Turkmenistan, as a country possessing major gas reserves and developing various transportation routes to the world markets, works to create the legal base to ensure international guarantees for the transit of energy resources," before adding, "Gas reserves are sufficient for many generations to come." Deputy Prime Minister Reshit Meredov remarked, "This is an important step toward creation of guarantees for reliability and stability of energy supplies." In a significant display of support for the resolution, 75 nations assisted in refining the draft resolution before the vote.
News Central Asia reported on Dec. 23 that before the resolution's passage "a major power was continuously nitpicking."
And who was the obstructionist nation?
Russia, tormentor of Georgia, Ukraine and shivering European customers?
Guess again. While not directly naming the malcontent, nCa added, "The United States is bent on denying the Central Asian resources to the countries that it perceives as future threat to its global ambitions. In plain language, the U.S. would not like China and India to benefit from Central Asian oil and gas pipelines."
Berdimuhamedov's diplomatic initiative should alert all but the most deluded American energy executives that Ashgabat sees its future energy exports and prosperity as based on reliable relations with neighboring consumer nations rather than making its future prosperity hostage to U.S. geostrategic considerations. Turkmenistan's future export market is Eurasia, and Berdimuhamedov's adroit negotiations with Gazprom have undercut Washington's last negotiating ace, the price disparity between what Gazprom pays for Central Asian gas and what it charges its European customers.
Berdimuhamedov's initiative also dovetails nicely with the lessons that Brussels has drawn from Russia's recent disputes with Georgia and Ukraine. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said in Brussels on Jan. 20 he wants to make energy security a priority at the March meeting of EU state leaders, commenting, "Now we have to be serious about diversifying and investing in Europe's energy security future." Meredov earlier underlined the possibilities of this rapprochement when he told the General Assembly, "We take a highly responsible position of developing international cooperation on the basis of our national interests and needs of our partners."
Galling as Washington's oligarchs may find it, Turkmenistan's "national interests" probably define current major customers Russia and Iran as "partners" ahead of the United States. If U.S. energy companies want a crack at South Iolotan-Osman's reserves, it would seem they will be at the end of a rather long line.
