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Analysis: Nigeria violence contrallable?

By CARMEN J. GENTILE, UPI Energy Correspondent

The recent spate of kidnappings that led to the death of a foreigner last week in the oil-rich Niger Delta was unfortunate and embarrassing, said Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who assured foreign investors that the situation there was becoming more controllable.

The president's assurances come amid an increasing level of violence in the region that led to the recent death of one foreign oil worker and an increase in kidnappings in the delta.

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Earlier this week, Obasanjo told members of the Honorary International Investors Council at a meeting at his home in Abuja that his administration was dedicated to improving the living standards of Nigerians living in a region rich with petroleum, though plagued by poverty.

He went on to laud the Niger Delta Development Commission for its efforts to address development needs in the delta and attributed a recent spike in violence to the impatience of some Nigerians who think that all the region's ailments can be resolved overnight.

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The majority -- nearly 60 percent -- of the country's 130 million inhabitants live well below the poverty line, according to a World Bank survey.

In the delta, where much of the country's on-shore oil extraction takes place, the billions of dollars extracted from the region has incited widespread ire in recent years and given birth to the militant group known as the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, which calls for greater profit sharing.

MEND has also been blamed for costing Nigeria between 600,000-900,000 barrels per day in production losses, somewhere between 20-40 percent of the country's total production potential, noted analysts.

Last week militants took hostage several foreign oil workers aboard an Italian oil vessel off the coast of the delta and killed a British worker, prompting some oil companies to question whether they have a long-term future in Nigeria.

"The increasing kidnappings and attacks on oil installations we're seeing in the delta are not in line with assestment of the situation [being controllable] given by President Obasanjo," Peter Lewis, director of the Africa Studies program at John Hopkins University, told United Press International.

Lewis noted that with $50 billion in oil revenue reported last year, there is a "gross disparity between the country's potential ... and the amount the government is delivering for social services."

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MEND and delta leaders and residents have been clamoring for Obasanjo to spend more of the country's oil wealth on development projects like roads and schools and health programs, including more hospitals and improving access to potable water.

Obasanjo appears eager to wrest control of the region to improve oil production while making some inroads into improving the lives of its inhabitants. In August, he vowed to crack down on the MEND hoping it would demonstrate the government's commitment to tackling the violence there. Since then, militants have stepped up attacks and kidnappings and vowed to continue their struggle until their demands were met.

"I think the government is serious about wanting to find ways to address the grievances of the residence in the delta," Lewis said. "However it's simply not getting to the people."

The continuing violence is considered by many to be a bad harbinger to presidential elections slated for April 2007. If successful, the election would mark the first time Nigeria has successfully transferred power from one leader to another since the country's independence from military rule in 1999.

Prior to then, Nigeria was ruled for decades by a series of dictators and military leaders.

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Due to the continuing unrest and the government's inability to contain the violence, some say the future of the country's democratic processes are in jeopardy.

"Nigeria's federal system and politics are deeply flawed, contributing to rising violence that threatens to destabilize one of Africa's leading countries," read a recent report by the International Crisis Group, a nonpartisan think tank.

The October report warns that unless Nigeria "engages with the underlying issues of resource control, equal rights, power sharing and accountability, ... (it) will face an internal crisis of increasing proportions."

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