SANTA MONICA, Calif. -- Increased military support for U.S. efforts against drug smugglers is not likely to limit the amount of cocaine available or reduce drug consumption, according to a RAND Corp. study released Thursday.
'Increased drug interdiction efforts are not likely to greatly affect the availability of cocaine in the United States,' said the study conducted for the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy.
The study, which used a computer model of smuggling behavior, also said a major increase in military support for drug interdiction efforts 'is unlikely to significantly reduce drug consumption' in the United States.
Peter Reuter, the study's principal author, said that although interdiction raises the smugglers' risks, they adapt to it and alter their methods very quickly. And even if the smugglers' costs are raised somewhat, the increase amounts to only a fraction of the final street price of the drug and does not significantly affect demand.
'Smugglers diversify in the face of increased risk and that reduces the effectiveness of interdiction,' Reuter said. 'Unless you can raise the risk on almost every route, than it is very difficult to raise the cost of cocaine in this country.'
Reuter said that because demand for cocaine in the United States is 'relatively insensitive' to the smugglers' wholesale selling price, seizures may actually increase the earnings of South American producers and cocaine smugglers even though it raises the smugglers' costs.
Interdiction may have a greater impact on marijuana smuggling, however, because of its greater bulk and ease of detectability, said the study titled, 'Sealing the Borders: The Effects of Increased Military Participation in Drug Interdiction.'
Military expenditures on interdiction rose from $1 million in fiscal 1981 to $196 million in fiscal 1986 and non-military expenditures from $236 million to $605 million during the same period, the study said.
The White House has opposed increasing the involvement of the military in drug interdiction beyond its current generally limited role of notifying the Coast Guard, Customs Service or Immigration and Naturalization Service of possible drug shipments.
But Senate Republican leader and presidential contender Robert Dole told a White House conference Thursday that the only way to win the war on drugs is to combat the multibillion-dollar criminal drug empire with the 'full force of the military and intelligence community.'
Breaking with the administration, Education Secretary William Bennett also has called for greater use of the military in battling drug smugglers.
The RAND study's analysis does not conclude that 'the military should cease to support the drug interdiction program' but 'strongly suggests ... that a major increase in military support' will not likely affect drug consumption to any great degree.
The RAND Corp. is an idependent, non-profit research organization based in Santa Monica.
