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You would give the higher probability to Obama winning because he's been ahead in every poll over the last several weeks that we've done
Experts: McCain needs big October comeback Oct 19, 2008
Signifying a general stability in the race, Obama has maintained a share of the vote between 48 percent and 52 percent over the last two weeks, while McCain's share during that same time period has been between 41 percent and 45 percent
Poll: Obama has an 11-point lead Oct 09, 2008
The data show that McCain has been doing slightly better for the last three days than he had in the previous week, and with some strong Obama days falling off of the rolling average, the race has moved to its current tied position
Gallup Poll: Obama, McCain tied Sep 25, 2008
Obama had moved to as much as a 6 percentage point lead over McCain last week in the midst of the intensive news coverage of the Wall Street financial crisis, but the race has, in the last several days, settled back to the same type of slight edge for Obama that typified the race for most of the summer prior to the political conventions
Poll: Obama leads McCain by 3 points Sep 24, 2008
What's remarkable this summer is the stability of this race
Obama stalls in voter preference polls Aug 06, 2008