The Trump iceberg's impending collision with the U.S. ship of state

Dec. 4 (UPI) -- The U.S. ship of state is on a collision course with a Trump-made iceberg, with tariffs, massive deportations and more looming underneath. The question is whether or not president-elect Donald Trump says what he means and means what he says in terms of his promised policies. Perhaps the winds and currents of the Constitution and the law will alter the course of either the ship or the iceberg. Until the new president takes the oath of office and implements his plans, that possibility is moot.

Trump has said he will impose 25% tariffs on America's neighbors, Canada and Mexico, as well as other major trading partners. China faces 10% tariffs. Europe will presumably get their share.

Most economists and critics argue that tariffs are in essence "taxes" on the public. While tariffs will be remitted to the U.S. government, costs will be added to virtually every product by sellers, substantially raising prices. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has already journeyed to Trump's Mar-a-Lago retreat to discuss and possibly preempt the imposition of tariffs. Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum wrote that her country would retaliate, costing the United States hundreds of thousands of jobs.

Trump supporters argue that tariffs are merely a negotiating tool for the new president, one that will lead to better deals even beyond trade. Hence, Americans should not worry about any negative consequences.

Trump has claimed that tariffs will close the deficit and debt by bringing billions to the U.S. Treasury. To avoid these tariffs, Trump believes foreign corporations will be forced to move manufacturing to America, increasing U.S. employment. This thinking is flawed, like how Trump wrongly believed in his first term that tariffs would reduce the large U.S. trade deficit.

The truth is U.S. consumers will bear these costs. The economy will suffer as inflation grows. The current gains of the stock market could be reversed. And if these policies are pursued, recession is too likely.

Moreover, foreign states will retaliate. The cost of moving to the United States will be too expensive. The unhappy history of tariffs and their detrimental impact dates back to Smoot-Hawley of almost a century ago, and will be repeated. But the question remains: is Trump serious about using tariffs to raise money? Or is this part of a negotiating tactic?

Trump has dismissed the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025, ensuring the conservative think tank's political initiative will not become an administration blueprint. However, he has chosen JD Vance, who wrote the report's foreword, as his vice president. In addition, Russell Vought, his choice for Office of Management and Budget (OMB), has a chapter in the report, which showed how OMB could impose the reforms across government that Trump has since demanded. Other cabinet picks associated with Project 2025 include Border Czar Tom Holman, Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, and nominee for CIA director John Ratcliffe.

In the realm of foreign policy, Trump has challenged U.S. support for Ukraine and Taiwan. He has boasted he will resolve the Russia-Ukraine war in the first 24 hours of his presidency, a promise that if fulfilled, will almost certainly lead to a Russian victory, especially with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's popularity rating standing at about 25%. In his first administration, Trump cut off aid for Ukraine and initially demeaned NATO. He later threatened that if NATO cannot meet its spending goals, Russian President Vladimir Putin "can do whatever the hell he wants."

Regarding Taiwan, Trump has not signaled his support for the island's independence from China. Therefore, would the United States go to war over Taiwan, or for that matter Ukraine? Should Trump impose tariffs on China, might Chinese President Xi Jingping see Taiwan as an opportunity for retaliation? Xi has told his army to be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027. And some in America question why Taiwan has not done enough to defend itself.

Meanwhile, the mandate for the non-governmental Department of Governmental Efficiency (DOGE), co-chaired by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, could impose extreme reform, enacting wholesale cuts to include civil service employees. But this, and the department's other goal of closing the borders while making massive deportations of undocumented migrants, will be challenged in the courts. Democratic governors and mayors have promised to resist these deportation efforts. And civil servants will not roll over when faced with the prospect of being fired.

Trump does have a super-majority on the Supreme Court. If president-elect Donald Trump gets his way, the ability of the court or Congress to impose any guardrails will determine how dangerous his impending collision with the U.S. ship of state will be.

Harlan Ullman is UPI's Arnaud de Borchgrave Distinguished Columnist, a senior advisor at Washington's Atlantic Council, the prime author of "shock and awe" and author of "The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large." Follow him @harlankullman. The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.